Have you heard of the peak oil hypothosis?

[Nick Blair]

Have you heard of the peak oil hypothosis? What do you make of it?

[Jeanied]

From what I can understand, Nick, the amount of known oil reserves is set to be worked out in a number of decades. Prudent, planet saving energy companies would be wise to invest in developing sustainable means of generating energy to meet the increase in demand - which is set to outstrip supply even without the drop in oil production.
Why do you ask?

[Nick Blair]

I am just curious about it, some people think we are close to peak oil or have already reached it.

[Two_Sheds]

Yes we probably have reached peak oil, but it isn't running out yet. Not while there's Greenland to destroy

[Jeanied]

The latest disaster in the Gulf of Mexico may focus a few minds on finding an alternative!

[Nicos]

Not knowing all the statistics, I do have the impression that over the next 50 years the remaining reserves will become more and more expensive to extract.
(Bit like the coal seams in the UK in the 70's)
They then don't become financially viable and alternative fuels/products will need to be found.
Petrol and non biodegradable plastics will become a thing of the past/luxury.

Seems to me that there should be a serious race on for this next massive step in Industrial evolution!


The sooner the better is my reaction when I see the dreadful effects of the horrendous oil spill

[HeyWayne]

Yes, we are running out of oil - fast. I need to get to Sainsbury's at lunch time to get some.

[BigShot]

One one hand there's the argument that oil has peaked and we'll see the end of it in 30 to 70 years. 30 is worst case (probably a bit far fetched) and would make a pretty big mess of food production, supermarket stock levels and what have you. 70 should be plenty of time for serious alternatives to come on line and reduce the negative side somewhat, though it would still be a bit messy without big changes in agriculture, food delivery and prices.

On the other hand is the argument that peak oil is a dirty great big lie to drive up prices, make a handful of people filthy rich and all the while there are dirty great big oilfields sitting untapped all over the place. This one also causes problems for agriculture, distribution and food prices.


Personally I don't pretend to have the faintest idea which one is true but have a feeling that the common thread - rising prices and a bit of a mess - is pretty likely. Changes are needed and I agree with Nicos. The sooner the better. I think it will happen quite naturally though. Everyday things will get too expensive and people will come around to realising this way isn't sustainable... the sooner that happens the better off we'll all be.

[bobleponge]

I would suggest that we are nowhere near peak oil as yet.
From its discovery to now, it is reckoned in some circles that we have used about a third of the known resources. The unknown resources must also (somehow, with brains the size of Jupiter) be factored into the equation.
As the planet becomes more dependant on oil, so we become better at using it, meaning that if we take X to be the amount of oil used in the first hundred years of its production, X will last 3 or even 4 times that timescale as our technology increases. As our ever increasing reliance on oil forces companies to invest more into finding new fields, and new ways of extracting it, the price will go up, but there are hundreds of years of oil in front of us.
There are untapped, yet known oil fields, all around Australia for example, which eventually will be drilled. In the Saklin (sp) oil field in Russia, the boffins cant agree how much there is left, as even during drilling, the smaller pockets of oil which used to be left behind are now being recovered.
There has been a recent new discovery in Algeria, in the Sahara. It wont be a conventional recovery, as generally oil is found in permeous rock, however this field, (which is still being mapped but is known to be one of the largest in the world) will have to be extracted from sand.
With the advent of sustainable energy, the current oil reserves are set to last longer and longer.
Whether we like it or not, our grandchildrens grandchildren will still be driving around in combustion engined vehicles.

Well, thats wot some clever bloke told me anyway.

[HeyWayne]

I reckon it'll happen in 2012.

[TheBeeKeeper]

The rate of use of oil from discovery to what it is now tends to suggest that we are at, or at least very close to peak oil. There are other oil fields out there, but for now they are not yet economical to drill. When oil goes past $200/barrel that will change! I don't think that figure is too far away.

What frustrates me is that last summer oil reached $140 per barrel, and there was uproar when petrol at the pump reached £1.30 ish per litre. Oil is back down at $73 per barrel. Why is a litre of petrol so expensive again?!?

Aside from that, when oil does start to dwindle, my conspiracy theory is that we'll see inventions that were bought by major oil companies tens of years ago coming into the market.

TBK

[lizzylemon]

Well, thats wot some clever bloke told me anyway.

Yes and I believe his name is Robert the Loofer XX

[Nick Blair]

The rate of use of oil from discovery to what it is now tends to suggest that we are at, or at least very close to peak oil. There are other oil fields out there, but for now they are not yet economical to drill. When oil goes past $200/barrel that will change! I don't think that figure is too far away.

What frustrates me is that last summer oil reached $140 per barrel, and there was uproar when petrol at the pump reached £1.30 ish per litre. Oil is back down at $73 per barrel. Why is a litre of petrol so expensive again?!?

Aside from that, when oil does start to dwindle, my conspiracy theory is that we'll see inventions that were bought by major oil companies tens of years ago coming into the market.

TBK

They bought inventions?

[solway cropper]

Those of us old enough to remember and who were aware of these things at the time have come to realize that if you make a prediction it will invariably be wrong.

In the 1970s oil was predicted to run out in the first few years of the twenty-first century. Oh, and we were also set to be in the middle of another ice age.

Get yourself a push-bike and a woodburner and it won't matter anyway.