The great debate

[rary]

if it's gonna rain most of July it would be handy to know!

I would go for rain, that`s when I will be on holiday

[Verinda]

The ashes are all in leaf here but no oak leaves yet. The ash is much earlier than usual.

[SkyChild]

Haven't got any ash or oak nearby at all! (Bizarre!)
I remain optimistic and think it'll be a dry one though.

[veggiechicken]

My back garden today!


I'm standing under an oak (those whispy branches at the top, there's a big oak in full leaf on the left and one that's thinking about leafing up on the right.
The leafless tree in the centre is an ash.

Clearly, the oaks are still undecided as to which way to vote but the ash has made up its mind - they're not going to turn out in time to vote.

[Valleyman]

Oaks are winning here too. They have more leaf the further you go up the hill, so we must be in a cold dip here.

The ashes in the meantime are sitting around doing nothing.

[Mikey]

So I guess the Oaks won it, which is a really promising omen, if you believe in folklore. I think what it proves is that our ancestors liked to hedge their bets!!. Roughly 40-50 years ago the Ash would have been first out about 30% of the time, however due to milder springs its appearance first is far less likely these days.

The reasons behind the theory is all to do with how these trees generate their leaves. Oak trees come into leaf based on the temperature, while Ash trees leaf based on daylight hours. Its a subtle difference but, does highlight the growing trend to warmer milder springs.

Bizarrely German folklore has the saying the other way around so you can make up your own mind which way you plan to base your gardening year on this long range forecast!!

The woodland trust tested the theory based on 250 years worth of research and found it had no bearing what so ever on what the impending summer was likely to be like.

However they also tested the theory of St Swithens day

'St Swithun's day if thou dost rain, For forty days it will remain, St Swithun's day if thou be fair, For forty days 'twill rain nae mare.

Unusually this was found to have more basis on reality, as it was an indication of what the jet stream is doing during that time. If the jet stream is lower it brings more wet and colder weather from the arctic, while if it is higher we get warm weather from the Africa and the Mediterranean. This tends to last for a period of 4-6 weeks so a warm St Swithuns would indicate a warm July/August.

So Based on the theory you are better off following what the jet stream is doing for a guide t the weather long term HERE'S a link for you to see whats happening over the next fortnight.