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I have come to the conclusion that Metereology is mostly Hokum.

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  • I have come to the conclusion that Metereology is mostly Hokum.

    I am sorry, good people--but statistically, it seems that meteorological assertions relating to rainfall are no more predicative than my own guesstimates. What I mean to say is that I believe, if I were to run the numbers through SPSS or something, I'm sure I would find, if I were to tabulate my own predictions (which are made by looking out a window) and measure these against those made by the weatherman, there would be exceedingly little difference in terms of accuracy between both cases.

    Now, I'm about to write a sentence that you're no doubt familiar with:

    'Mostly fine with a chance of showers and possible rain clearing'.

    Oh thankyou, professor science! Whatever the f*%$ would I have done had I not been privy to such arcane information! You are truly the mouthpiece of Zeus himself!

    I mean seriously what does that even mean? What kind of nonsense language is that anyway--so what's being said here really, when you break it down, is that it might rain, and if that does happen conditions will be overcast until they aren't anymore, but it also might not and if it does, it will stop raining at some point anyway at which time conditions will revert back to normal pre-rain conditions.

    Imagine if I said to you 'Someone is going to win the lottery, and I know what the numbers will be.

    And then I proceeded to prattle off every single possible number combination.

    In the same way, weather forecasts aren't predictions. They are statements.

    It's not hard to be right when literally every possible outcome is determined, and accounted for, within the language of the prediction itself.

    *shakes head*

    unbelievable
    Last edited by Starling; 02-09-2015, 08:20 AM.

  • #2
    So, are we having rain or not ?

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    • #3
      Originally posted by jackarmy View Post
      So, are we having rain or not ?
      I think "we"re having a rant - or not

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      • #4
        Originally posted by jackarmy View Post
        So, are we having rain or not ?
        Partially overcast possible late showers developing.

        I bet I'm right.

        In fact I challenge anybody to prove me wrong....
        Last edited by Starling; 02-09-2015, 08:33 AM.

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        • #5
          How would we know what your weather's like, Starling? You're the other side of the world!

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          • #6
            Nooooooooooooooooooo, it's meditation that is nothing but hokum, as proven by Dr. Sheldon Cooper ................






            Metereology is the study of weather patterns & their probable outcomes


            Best weather forecast technique .................... Look out the window
            Last edited by bearded bloke; 02-09-2015, 09:15 AM.
            He who smiles in the face of adversity,has already decided who to blame

            Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity

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            • #7
              A surprisingly accurate weather forecast most of the time is, "The weather today will be much like it was yesterday". If I want more detail, I only trust BBC's Carol to tell me the truth. Hopefully she will be back from hols soon. Otherwise I look at the synaptic charts Metcheck.com - Atlantic UK Met Office Synoptic Pressure Charts - 12-120hr Forecast to get an idea of how reliable the forecast might be.
              My gardening blog: In Spades, last update 30th April 2018.
              Chrysanthemum notes page here.

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              • #8
                This page is nice, too: Metcheck.com - GFS 16 Day Verification Charts - 6-384hr Forecast. It shows today's pressure and temperature chart, and lets you see what the forecast for today was for any day in the last two weeks.

                Looking at today, the forecast was pretty good last Saturday, but Friday and earlier are a long way out.
                My gardening blog: In Spades, last update 30th April 2018.
                Chrysanthemum notes page here.

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                • #9
                  I use this one, and work it out for myself. Mostly, it is more accurate than anything else.

                  Will it Rain Today? | Rain radar for the UK | Going to rain? | MeteoGroup

                  If I want to know the likelihood of thunder storms, I check this site.

                  Real-Time Lightning Map :: LightningMaps.org

                  I got both of these sites on recommendations from this forum.
                  Last edited by Glutton4...; 02-09-2015, 05:43 PM.
                  All the best - Glutton 4 Punishment
                  Freelance shrub butcher and weed removal operative.

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                  • #10
                    I used to live on the South Coast... it was important to know what the weather was going to do there, as it could be warm and dry for long periods. I lived through a hurricane and a tornado there, the sea could batter the the coast for days on end because of the gales. Snow was rare, but the place would grind to halt at even the hint of a flake or two of the white stuff.

                    I could wear shorts and flipflops from April until October if I wanted.

                    I now live near Manchester - I don't need to look at the weather forecast.

                    I either have to wear a coat or I don't.

                    Simples.
                    Last edited by Ding Dang Doo; 03-09-2015, 06:33 AM.

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