Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

Well, a week on, and with at least 1 member (often more) of the ensembles showing record breaking heat on each day, we now have an amber Met Office warning for extreme heat covering most of England and western Wales for Sunday "into next week" https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2022-07-17. Things are still uncertain (apart from the fact that it is definitely going to be hot), but broken records are still a possibility, as is 40C+ in parts of the south east.

There has been quite a lot on social media regarding this just being normal hot summer weather. A reminder, for those who think 40C is anything like normal:

Since records began there have been only 9 years when a temperature of 35C or more has been recorded in the UK. They are 1976, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2020. Now 2022, in what should be a "cool" La Nina summer we are looking at a chance of breaking the all-time record, possibly by over a degree.

Frightening.

[Penellype]

This is just ridiculous. The current forecast for York. Not Heathrow airport or any of the other usual suspects, just York.


This is terrifying - I fear for the life of my 86 year old Mum who has heart trouble.

[Nicos]

Very scary indeed Pen.
The problem in the uk us that most people don’t know how to behave in that sort of temperature, or are capable of changing their routines.
People continue to wear synthetic clothing.
The houses aren’t insulated enough. People aren’t used to opening windows first thing to cool the house down. No shutters on windows. Curtains do help but they’re not as good.
It doesn’t feel safe against burglars to leave north facing windows open .
people don’t get up early, have a siesta, then stay up late in the cool.
At 92 my mother couldn’t be persuaded to change her daily routine - nor drink extra water. She often forgot to turn her air conditioning unit on until it was already roasting in her flat.
Watch out for your elderly relatives and neighbours peeps - and also yourselves xx

Fingers crossed your veggie crops are ok too.

Out of interest, have a look at this site just to see what’s going on elsewhere!…

https://www.yourweather.co.uk/weathe...p2m-europ.html

[sandspider]

Hope everyone is ok out there.

Pen, do you have any idea when we might get some rain? One of my forecasts says a splash tomorrow evening, another says nothing till Monday. Yet another says nothing for the next two weeks!

[Penellype]

The issue with rain is that it is likely to be hit and miss and the models struggle to predict it accordingly. There are currently fronts out to the west and south west associated with the low pressure that is currently dragging the hot air up from Africa. The one to the south west is clipping Cornwall and producing thunderstorms at the moment. These fronts should move over the country in the next 24 hours or so, introducing cooler air, but how much rain will remain on them is debatable. I think what currently looks like organized bands of rain will break up into more isolated storms as it moves east, although if you catch one you are likely to know about it. I also think that the further south and west you are the more likely you are to see some rain in the next day or so. This is very difficult to forecast though because the situation is unprecedented, and it is not looking like a normal thundery breakdown of a heat spike. I am not sure that the models know how to handle this sort of weather, although they did a damn good job of predicting it.

Further on, with lowering pressure there is the potential for showers (again, hit and miss) before another plume of (more normal) hot air looks likely to arrive over next weekend, and that could end in a more typical thundery breakdown with more widespread rain. It is, however, not by any means certain.

The pool of hot air to the south remains in place. It is possible that there will be more hot or very hot spells later in the summer (although nothing is certain).

[Nicos]

Useful to know - thanks Pen.
Hope you are managing to keep cool. I know how much time you spend gardening and in this weather it must be very difficult to keep on top of things.

[Penellype]

Useful to know - thanks Pen.
Hope you are managing to keep cool. I know how much time you spend gardening and in this weather it must be very difficult to keep on top of things.

Thanks Nicos, it is a struggle at the moment, but I am so far managing to keep the house reasonably cool. I've been ill for over a week now and I am still far from back to normal. Just keeping on top of the watering and harvesting what couldn't wait has taken all my energy, and that was before the heatwave. The total absence of rain has at least stopped grass and weeds growing everywhere, although the horsetail seems to love it and is growing far more aggressively than I've ever known. It is impossible to dig it out, even if I had the energy, as the ground is like concrete.

It will pass, and I will just have to do my best until it does.

[Nicos]

Hope you feel better soon. Being ill in this weather must be pants
Hope it’s not the dreaded virus?

[Penellype]

Hope you feel better soon. Being ill in this weather must be pants
Hope it’s not the dreaded virus?

Its pants. I'm pretty sure it is covid, although it took me several days to reach that conclusion after a series of bizarre symptoms that could have been other things (including a painful top to my head, toothache and acid reflux at night!). I've never had a temperature with it, but when my sense of smell disappeared (after nearly a week) that seemed to nail it.

[Nicos]

Darn - let’s hope you are over the worst of it now x

[sandspider]

Thanks for the thoughts Pen, as ever. Fingers crossed we get some rain - and that you feel better!

[Penellype]

Thanks for the thoughts Pen, as ever. Fingers crossed we get some rain - and that you feel better!

Thanks Sandspider

[sandspider]

Well, we have had a bit of rain here. Some parts of the garden are still alive!
But none of my forecasts show any rain for the next fortnight or so at least.

[sandspider]

Oh, and temps of 30c or so again.

[Nicos]

Hot here again but it doesn’t seem that we’ll hit the fuzzy heights of 43C thank goodness.

Interestingly , this morning was actually ‘cold’…10C and a heavy dew. It felt like the first Autumnal morning.

Any updates Pen? Are there any vague guesses at a long term forecast - ie that we’re potentially in for an Indian Summer or is anything on the books at the moment.?