Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[bramble]

The weather has been horrendous here and it's still not done.
Thundery showers and driving wind.

[Penellype]

The weather has been horrendous here and it's still not done.
Thundery showers and driving wind.

Horribly windy here this morning - I have had to put some of the taller plants in pots into the garage as they keep blowing over. Likely to be windy all day and breezy into the weekend I'm afraid. Likely to remain showery too, especially in the north and west.

[Chippy Minton]

Wind looks like being the big issue hereabouts. Looking at the fully grown bean canes it's a basic sail. Might need some additional, sturdier, restraint.

Beans have survived so far, seem to be sheltered by the row of Alderman peas adjacent. Very windy here though and gusty. Not at all pleasant, but did manage to get the dog out between showers and cover the seedlings that are hardening off as they were getting waterlogged.

[Penellype]

More distinctly vile weather on the way this week, with another very deep area of low pressure heading our way for Tuesday. Expect more gales, lots of rain, heavy showers with possible hail and thunder, and then some very cold nights for the time of year towards next weekend as the wind turns into the north. Yuck.

[sandspider]

Thanks P, great!

Commenting again as email subscriptions still don't seem to be working for me. Anyone else?

[Penellype]

More warnings for wind and rain for tomorrow and Wednesday as expected - this low pressure system has now been named storm Francis. Stay safe everyone!

[purplekat]

West Yorkshire forecast is showing a low of 7c for Saturday night, worth checking your local weather, might have to get the fleece out!

[Penellype]

Yes, some very chilly nights for the time of year coming up over the weekend, especially in the north.

[Penellype]

Yet more up and down temperatures coming up if the models are to be believed (there are currently 2 tropical storms which might cause problems for the forecasts later). Warm and muggy today (I have a blight warning) and very warm over night, but cooling down tomorrow so that tomorrow night is rather chilly. Cool over the weekend then it looks like becoming really rather warm for a couple of days early next week, with 30C in the south a possibility. Whether that actually happens, and if it breeds thunderstorms as the heat breaks down is open to question at the moment.

This is not what is sometimes called an Indian Summer - that refers to warm and dry weather in October.

[Chippy Minton]

Could do with some warmth and sun after the drizzle and mizzle and rain. Need to get a few more things ripe.

[Penellype]

Could do with some warmth and sun after the drizzle and mizzle and rain. Need to get a few more things ripe.

Agreed - my outdoor tomatoes are really struggling to ripen - only the Sungold and the Shirley in the growhouse have produced ripe fruit so far.

[mothhawk]

This is not what is sometimes called an Indian Summer - that refers to warm and dry weather in October.

My grandfather always called a warm spell in September an Indian Summer, and a warm spell in October St. Luke's Little Summer.

I see the Met Office defines an Indian summer as 'a warm, calm spell of weather occurring in autumn, especially in October and November.' Since they now define autumn as commencing on 1st September, then any time from then on can be an Indian Summer I suppose.

[bikermike]

Hi Penellype,

do the weather runes give you any idea as to what the autumn winter is likely to be like?

[1Bee]

I've taken down my tomatoes today, as we're properly into autumnal cool and damp conditions. We've had some warm days this week, but the mould was still setting in in the greenhouse.

[Penellype]

Hi Penellype,

do the weather runes give you any idea as to what the autumn winter is likely to be like?

Long range predictions are always just a guess really. However there are some pointers to what might happen.

At present we have a very, very active hurricane season, with (as I write) 6 areas of interest on the hurricane map, one of them ex-hurricane Sally and another hurricane Teddy. Ex-hurricanes often change weather patterns here and while Sally is not forecast to come this way, Teddy might towards the middle of next week. My thoughts for the rest of September are therefore that the dry weather (but not as warm as it has been down south) continues for another few days before likely being replaced by cooler, wetter and more changeable weather which could become rather windy if Teddy heads over us. Whether this lasts through October is hugely dependent on what other ex-hurricanes do - there is almost certainly going to be more. My guess would be that October could be another month of swings between periods of low and high pressure with the resultant variation in weather and temperature. Autumn is always a tricky period to forecast. I haven't a clue about November.

For winter the signs are mostly pointing towards a colder rather than warmer winter. This may depend on how strong the current La Nina gets and how much influence it has over the north pacific. Recent mild winters have appeared to be linked partly to an area of warm water off the coast of Alaska, which has tended to send the jet stream on a north west to south east trajectory over America. this gives America a cold winter and powers up the jet stream across the atlantic, sending low pressure systems our way (mild, wet and windy). At the moment this area of water is still very warm, but in the last week or so there have been very slight indications of it cooling a little. This may or may not continue, if it does it increases the chance of a colder winter here. There are also slight signs of the new polar vortex (which starts to form at this time of year) being slightly weaker than usual, again a possible indicator of a colder winter. it is too early to say whether this will continue. The long range models are tending to show a cold winter, with particular emphasis on February, but their reliability at this range is highly doubtful.

So, autumn continuing to swing from one extreme to another and winter more likely to be colder rather than warmer is my best guess, but remember that a cold winter can have warmer periods (and vice versa). Be prepared though for the possibility of a cold February as this seems at the moment to be something of a consistent signal (even if it turns out to be consistently wrong!).