Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

It is very easy to think that winter is over when the weather warms up at this time of year like it has at the moment. It is looking distinctly possible that by this time next week it could be cold again with quite severe night frosts and some wintery showers possible in the east. This is still a week away and therefore subject to change, but at the moment the high pressure looks like drifting north or north west, which would turn the wind into the east or north. There is unlikely to be a lot of snow as high pressure is likely to still be in control, but a distinct drop in temperature is probable.

You have been warned!

[Plot70]

We are heading for the hail stone season.
It is normally when the daffodils are in flower. There is a lot in bud and a few open in my area.

[Penellype]

A couple of very cold nights coming up with a sharp frost likely. After that it should become somewhat less cold, with milder, wet and windy weather moving in from the west by mid week. After that things are much less certain, but the trend seems to be towards low pressure systems which may be far enough south at times to pull the wind in from the north as they move away. It is therefore not impossible that some places may see some sleet or snow briefly towards mid month, possibly even quite far south, but at present a return to very cold weather appears unlikely. Forecasts this far ahead can, of course, change.

[Penellype]

Yellow wind warnings for much of the country over the next 48hrs as the jet stream pays us a visit. There will be a fair amount of rain too, and it will get briefly warmer as the warm sector of the low passes through. Colder again afterwards with wintery showers possible over northern hills.

After a couple of chilly nights over the weekend it looks likely to get milder and drier with high pressure returning, although the temperature will depend crucially on the position of the high. Some of the model runs are seeing a return of winter in the 3rd week of March with snow a possibility while others remain mild and spring-like. It is too early to be sure which will happen, but please be aware that it is still possible that winter may yet reappear.

[Gillykat]

If it does snow in the third week I'll have THE most almighty tantrum!!! I have a week off starting Monday 22nd and hope to finish off any remaining digging & weeding that week Fingers crossed.

[Penellype]

If it does snow in the third week I'll have THE most almighty tantrum!!! I have a week off starting Monday 22nd and hope to finish off any remaining digging & weeding that week Fingers crossed.

It all critically depends on the position of the high pressure. Current trends are to keep this slightly to our west, which draws in a chilly northwest flow around the top of the high. Some runs have the high drifting further north, which could start to pull the wind in from the east. In this situation the further south and east you are the more likely you are to get the coldest air and snow. There are plenty of runs that are much warmer at this point though - it is too far ahead for any certainty.

There is another option, that the high drifts further west towards Greenland. This could produce a cold northerly blast, but this at the moment seems to be a less likely scenario.

[Penellype]

Fortunately the high pressure didn't drift west and the weather has been reasonably pleasant although some places have had a lot of cloud (always a hazard with high pressure, depending on wind direction). However, we may not be out of the woods yet.

More changeable, windy and cooler weather coming in from the west over the next couple of days, with a potentially quite cold night on Friday and day on Saturday before it gets milder again into Sunday. However, the models are increasingly agreeing that the high pressure may move west into the Atlantic and ridge towards Greenland, bringing in a cold northerly wind just in time for Easter. If the coldest runs are right this could produce frosty nights and some snow, although this would be likely to melt quite quickly except on higher ground. Unlike the cold snap on Saturday this could last a week or so. A cold spell is not yet a certainty, but is looking more likely with every model run at the moment.

It is still only March. Do not be fooled into planting out tender plants - snow at Easter is more common than snow at Christmas, and it could be cold enough to severely check plants even in a greenhouse.

[peanut]

As Prince said "Sometimes It Snows In April"

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen. At least I'm happy to prepare the ground and weed during the warmer spell. The seedlings can wait. Well they will, because they are still in their packets!

[Penellype]

The models are delaying the cold spell until Monday, but when it hits we will know about it if current runs are right. Don't be lulled into a false sense of security by the current warm spell!



That is some drop in upper air temperatures! The precipitation spikes at the bottom are likely to be wintery showers.

[Chippy Minton]

I'll say it again, we need a "like the post but don't like the message" button. Stuff is supposed to be heading outwards not back inwards Those are some chilly temperatures, and the shorts have made it out of the wardrobe...

[Nicos]

I’ve just been checking my forecast...we had 26C on Tuesday.
Monday night is supposed to be 4C ( feels like -4C ) and snow

There goes all my plum blossom again

[Penellype]

I've been hoping the models were exaggerating, but sadly it appears not. we are still on course for a massive drop in temperature into Easter Monday and snow is a definite possibility, at least in the form of showers, almost anywhere. There could be hail, thunder and lightning too as the cold air meets the warmer air. Temperatures are likely to rise slowly through the week, but some of the models are showing a 2nd northerly blast on the back of a low pressure for next weekend before it finally warms up. Not what you want in April.

[Mr Bones]

Not good news Pen but thank you.

[sandspider]

We'll, we've had hail! When is it likely to warm up again, Pen?!