Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen…much appreciated - sound advice as always.

[Penellype]

Thank you, interesting and informative. I don't plan any planting out yet, but would like to prune my orchard...

You should be fine pruning apple and pear trees, but don't prune any stone fruit such as cherries or plums until the sap starts to rise in late spring/early summer.

The next few days are expected to be milder and dry although temperatures will depend on the amount of cloud, which can be very variable under high pressure. Towards the end of the week it is expected to cool down nearer to average and become a bit more changeable as lower pressure starts to move in from the west.

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen I like the sound of having a few dry days.

[sandspider]

You should be fine pruning apple and pear trees, but don't prune any stone fruit such as cherries or plums until the sap starts to rise in late spring/early summer.

The next few days are expected to be milder and dry although temperatures will depend on the amount of cloud, which can be very variable under high pressure. Towards the end of the week it is expected to cool down nearer to average and become a bit more changeable as lower pressure starts to move in from the west.

Thanks P. It's mainly apples I need to prune, but I've read both not to prune them if there's any risk of frost for 5 - 10 days, and that it doesn't matter if there's frost immediately after pruning! It seems wise not to expose fresh cut wood to frosts, though.

[Penellype]

The weather apps are wildly inaccurate at the moment due to the difficulty of forecasting where the cloud will be. A good example is the 2 different models used on the Windfinder website. The GFS model which is used for the 10 day forecasts has been forecasting wall to wall sunshine for York yesterday and today with overnight temperatures dropping to around 2. The higher resolution "Superforecast", which does not tell you which model it uses, forecast sunshine yesterday, temperatures dropping to freezing last night and yesterday was forecasting today to be cloudy with a maximum temperature of 2. The reality is that yesterday was cloudy all day with temperatures around 7, and the minimum over night was around 5. Both models are predicting unbroken sunshine today, and it is still cloudy. The model that has performed best yesterday and today is the met office, which has useful forecasts of various factors such as temperature and cloud cover here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...emperature-map.

In this situation it is best to ignore weather apps and use your eyes. If it is cloudy it is unlikely to get much warmer during the day or be very cold at night. If the sky is clear and there is little wind to stir up the air, frost and possibly fog are likely. The longer the sky is clear for the colder it will get.

I hope this helps people who are wondering why the weather apps are so useless at present.

[Nicos]

Interesting. Thanks for the update!

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen I was wondering why the apps I look at were reading differently.

[Penellype]

Please do not be fooled into thinking that winter is over because we have had a few milder days. Temperatures will return to nearer normal for the time of year in the middle of this week, and after that there is a lot of uncertainty. Most of the models are showing high pressure moving north to some degree, possibly as a response to the SSW mentioned above. This could, if it lands in the right place, lead to prolonged cold weather. It might not, but the possibility is there.

You have been warned!

[Snoop Puss]

I've just read this and then looked ahead to our forecast for the end of the week. And yes, snow, heavy rain and very cold temperatures. And there as me doing exactly what you've just said, fooled into believing the worst of the winter was over. Thanks, Penellype. That's helped me make a few decisions.

[Plot70]

I have seen snow as late as April in Hampshire. It was in the late 1980s.

[peanut]

There is a "natural" weather forecaster chap (think he might be based in Kent?) who appears on This Morning a few times a year to give his seasonal forecasts. When he did it for this Winter, all I can remember was him saying March will turn cold and there will be snow.

[Plot70]

A white Easter is not out of the question.

[sandspider]

There is a "natural" weather forecaster chap (think he might be based in Kent?) who appears on This Morning a few times a year to give his seasonal forecasts. When he did it for this Winter, all I can remember was him saying March will turn cold and there will be snow.

That's Weather without technology, in Edenbridge I think. Trouble is he rambles so much in his forecasts that I seldom get much idea of what the weather will actually be like!

[Penellype]

A white Easter is not out of the question.

Statistically a white Easter is more likely than a white Christmas. Last frost dates in most parts of the UK are in late April or May. See https://www.plantmaps.com/interactiv...t-date-map.php.

[Penellype]

I have seen snow as late as April in Hampshire. It was in the late 1980s.

The most famous one was 23-26 April 1981 when snow fell in large parts of the UK. I remember it because it was my cousin's 21st birthday and we were supposed to be travelling from Yorkshire to London for a party...