Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

Worth keeping an eye on the forecast temperatures and more importantly the state of the sky over the next couple of nights and again next week High pressure is moving in from the west which brings the wind in from a north or north westerly direction. This is chilly and if the skies are clear the temperature could fall to low single figures over night. After bringing a few warmer days the high then retreats west again, returning the wind to the north. If you are in a frost-prone area it is worth keeping some fleece to hand, just in case.

If you have plants that are too big to cover, try putting some black plastic round them on the ground. This will absorb heat in the sun and warm the soil and this heat will be radiated back at night, keeping the temperature higher than it would otherwise have been. This is particularly useful if you have a pale coloured mulch down, but the downside is it could attract slugs. I am intending to try this with the tomatoes I planted in the tunnel.

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen, this next week we have a few 7c overnight temps forecasted.

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen - much appreciated.

[sandspider]

Looks like we're finally in for a warm spell! Got the swimming pool put, and waterbutts to keep the plants topped up!

[Penellype]

Things are definitely looking warmer after tonight, although I doubt it will be a heatwave (at least not yet). The main thing will be the welcome absence of chilly nights and a few dry days before the next lot of rain arrives at the weekend.

[Bren In Pots]

That's good news Pen thanks.

[Penellype]

Things are definitely looking warmer after tonight, although I doubt it will be a heatwave (at least not yet). The main thing will be the welcome absence of chilly nights and a few dry days before the next lot of rain arrives at the weekend.

The media will make much of the weather getting warmer and the possibility of reaching 30 degrees early next week. To put this in context, 30 degrees is not at all unusual for June, this will probably be limited to the southern half of the country with mid 20s elsewhere, and as it is only likely to last a day or 2 it does not in any way reach the definition of a heatwave, which needs to break a specific temperature (depending on where in the country you are) for a minimum of 5 consecutive days.

[Containergardener]

I will be in the low 20s camp and that's really good for us to reach

[Bren In Pots]

The forecast for my area is between 20 to 24c until Wed/Thurs

[sandspider]

Well, not a bad summer overall, really.

Looks like a damp week or so, then a nicer week or so, then who knows!

Pen, do you have any early thoughts on what September/ autumn look like this year?

Thank you.

[Containergardener]

You must have had a better summer than me then sandspider

[sandspider]

Maybe so! Damp in parts, but some nice sunny and warm days too. Down here anyway...

[Penellype]

Well, not a bad summer overall, really.

Looks like a damp week or so, then a nicer week or so, then who knows!

Pen, do you have any early thoughts on what September/ autumn look like this year?

Thank you.

Summer has been fairly average, which nowadays feels cool, although August is currently running at about 2 degrees above average. The present pattern is westerly, with high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north, which is effectively changeable, with the bulk of any rain/showers in the west and north.

By the weekend we will see the remains of hurricane Ernesto, which is going to combine with the existing low pressure and give us some wind and rain. Hurricanes are notoriously hard to predict as they are very small relative to the resolution of the weather models, and they can shake up the weather pattern depending on how they interact with the jet stream. Models have been rather uncertain about what follows Ernesto, but the current thinking appears to be that the position of the high pressure changes so that instead of being to the south and drawing the wind from the west, high pressure builds to the east, which draws up the wind from the south. This is a much warmer wind direction and can lead to high temperatures even at the start of September. It can also lead to thundery lows tracking north from Biscay.

Whether this actually happens is up for grabs at the moment, and will determine what follows. High pressure could settle over the country giving a warm and dry start to September - this is quite a frequent pattern and the models may therefore be biased towards it. Alternatively the high could settle to the east of us giving a more changeable, perhaps warm and thundery September. Given the pattern over the summer, my instinct is that the weather may remain changeable, but I could well be wrong. There will probably also be other hurricanes which could change the pattern again.

Almost all of the model output I have seen for October is high pressure biased, but it is too far away for that to be anything more than guesswork.

[sandspider]

Thanks P, interesting as ever. Looks like we chose the wrong week to go camping!

[Nicos]

Great update Pen- very much appreciated.