Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

Thanks Pen, it’s not looking good is it.

It really isn't. The Irish Met Eireann have issued a red warning for the whole of the republic of Ireland. I suspect that the Met Office amber warning for N Ireland will be upgraded to red tomorrow. Wind gusts of 122mph are forecast on Irish coasts, with gusts upto 100mph inland in places.

If you are in Ireland, please don't risk going out in this.

[Penellype]

Update as requested by Snoop Puss in the chitchat thread.

Storm Eowyn is a very deep low pressure system currently moving across Scotland. This has been fuelled by an extremely strong jet stream, which in turn has been strengthened by very cold air over America. The current position at mid day today is shown in this screenshot from https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren....08,55.16,4452 which shows the wind strength:



The core of the strongest winds is currently just north of Ireland, this is a "sting jet" which is quite complicated to explain but basically involves cold air wrapping around the low and causing massive gusts to plummet towards the surface. A sting jet was responsible for the massive gusts in the infamous 1987 "Michael Fish" storm. The blue area over northern Scotland shows light winds in the centre of the low pressure. In the northern hemisphere the strongest winds are on the southern and western sides of the low and this can clearly be seen. The nullschool website is animated and gives a better impression of the wind speeds.

The highest gust recorded so far was 114mph at Mace Head in the Republic of Ireland. I believe this is provisionally a record wind gust for Ireland. The Met Office have reported gusts of 93mph at Aberdaron (Scotland) and 92mph at Killowen N Ireland), while Cairnwell (also in Scotland) is listed on Netweather as having reported a gust of 106mph at 9am - this isn't on the Met Office list. These are extremely strong gusts - well into hurricane force on the Beaufort wind scale. This is not a hurricane - it is not of tropical origin and a hurricane has to have sustained wind speeds of over 64mph, not just gusts.

I have not seen many reports of damage on social media - no doubt they will appear later. I know there are power outages in Ireland and Scotland. These are likely to last some time as repair crews will wait until it is safe before climbing poles etc.

The Met Office have extended the red warning area a bit further south, covering more of Dumfries and Galloway. The red warning lasts until 5pm, amber until 9pm and yellow (which now only covers the northern half of the UK) lasts until midnight, although there are further yellow and amber wind warnings for Scotland for tomorrow.

Here in York it is very windy, but nothing approaching what is happening further north and west.

[Snoop Puss]

Thanks, Penellype. Really useful. There's nothing like a trusted source of info. Will copy a link to this post over on the chitchat thread to make sure everyone sees it.

Fascinating to see the wind map.

[sandspider]

According to my various forecasts, it looks like it will remain cold into April, at night at least. Given the time until April, I know these forecasts are little better than guesswork. Penellype, would you be able to have a quick guess at how long things will remain cold for?!

Thank you!

[Penellype]

According to my various forecasts, it looks like it will remain cold into April, at night at least. Given the time until April, I know these forecasts are little better than guesswork. Penellype, would you be able to have a quick guess at how long things will remain cold for?!

Thank you!

It depends what you mean by cold. Nights can be frosty from time to time into May - that is not unusual. We still have another month of winter but at the moment the longer range models are not seeing anything particularly cold for the time of year. The short range models are struggling as early as this weekend, with huge differences from run to run. Some are building a Scandinavian high pressure which would bring in an easterly wind - this can be very cold at this time of year, depending on the exact position of the high. Other models keep the more unsettled westerly regime going with milder weather but more unsettled at times. At this time of year there is always the question of whether we get a sudden stratospheric warming, which sometimes leads to cold weather a couple of weeks or more later - there are hints of this in the longer range stratospheric forecasts, but again these are only little better than guesswork at longer range.

Given the patterns that have dominated this winter so far, it would not surprise me to see another cold spell, as the Scandinavian high pattern keeps appearing in the models. If this was reinforced by a sudden stratospheric warming we could be looking at a cold late February into March. However that is far too far ahead to forecast with any confidence. In any case I would be very surprised if it remained solidly cold into April without any warmer interludes. It can happen but it is very unusual.

[sandspider]

Thanks P, appreciate the update. Fingers and toes crossed, I'm tired of being cold!

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen