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  • Changing Seasons

    So here we are in the middle of winter, and everything seems to be bursting into bloom/bud/leaf/song.
    Personally, I am deeply dismayed by the rapidity and scale of this, but not surprised - this, and the disappearance of spring as we know it, were predicted as long ago as 1987, as a potential effect of global warming.
    To the best of my knowledge, there has been no research whatsoever in the UK, as to what the local consequences of this might be on food growers; the closest I know of was an international symposium of biological scientists who came to the conclusion that the 21st century globally was going to be great for moulds and fungi.
    So let's play a game. Assume that typically in the future you get only the occasional frosty spell (air frost only, or shallow ground frost at most), but otherwise nothing much winterlike. Maybe an occasional blizzard, but nothing long lasting; air temperatures well above freezing, into double figures much if not most of the time. (Warming will be more noticeable the further North one is.) Oh, and lots of gales. Further South, longer and hotter dry spells in summer, with more floods when it does rain; more rain in winter than summer.
    How would you expect this to change the way you grow things ? What would you do with the extended growing season ? What pitfalls might you expect, in the way of increased pests or diseases ?
    Personally I am going to try starting some leaf crops in the next couple of weeks because I don't see temperatures falling by much now that the days are getting longer again; and I'm really keen to get the rest of my garlic into the ground, because it might not get much cold to help it bulb up later, if the frost disappears entirely.
    I'm praying that my carrot fly will not survive even this mild a winter if I pull the carrots pdq...and hoping that my salsify and scorzonera will profit by extra warmth.
    There's no point reading history if you don't use the lessons it teaches.

    Head-hunted member of the Nutter's Club - can I get my cranium back please ?

  • #2
    Lack of heavy frosts will certainly increase pests and diseases. Insects, including pollinators, will move further north in an attempt to find suitable habitat/temperatures according to species. There will be a corresponding influx of insects and avian species from the south (probably marine life too). There will no doubt be pros and cons to all of this. Plant life will be affected in the same way. It's been wet and miserable here for a few days now so while we may have higher temperatures the quality of light is not brilliant.

    Maybe we should all sew something and see how we get on...a sort of non scientific experiment?

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    • #3
      Originally posted by donnakebab View Post
      Maybe we should all sew something and see how we get on...
      And there you have your answer ^^^^^ ,man will adapt to the circumstances
      He who smiles in the face of adversity,has already decided who to blame

      Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity

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      • #4
        It's a pretty much normal winter here in the East - we don't normally get the cold weather until Jan/Feb/Mar anyway.
        We have, however, already been warned that we are experiencing drought conditions, and the year hasn't even begun yet. Last spring was a struggle, we didn't have any rain for about 9 weeks, just when all the seedlings were being planted out
        All gardeners know better than other gardeners." -- Chinese Proverb.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by bearded bloke View Post
          And there you have your answer ^^^^^ ,man will adapt to the circumstances
          Rich man will. The poor will suffer increasing catastrophic weather events, eg tsunamis, floods, droughts. The rich will survive
          All gardeners know better than other gardeners." -- Chinese Proverb.

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          • #6
            is there an evil scientist plot afoot,one where adverse weather conditions can differentiate between the wealth levels of those it affects.
            He who smiles in the face of adversity,has already decided who to blame

            Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity

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            • #7
              That would be the dreaded Evil Dr Libertarian's "market forces" superweapon, whereby if a commodity such as good soil or water runs short, only those with the most money end up with crops.
              (A la the sharecroppers of the American Deep South - the good ol' American Way. I have a name for such a scenario - economic violence.)

              man will adapt to the circumstances
              Hmm, history books are full of civilisations that did not manage to adapt to local climatic shifts - the reason you have not heard of them is partly that they failed so totally, almost nothing remains. The canyon peoples of the US Midwest, the Khmer of Asia...what was the casualty rate ? I wonder just how the 50+ millions of England would manage to move house up to the peaty soils of Scotland, just so that they can have some of that increasingly bountiful rainfall that we seem to be "stealing" from your latitudes. The point that has been made clear to me increasing forcefully as I learn about ecology (and economics, which are near-as-dammit analogous processes and principles) is that the more any system is optimised to suit one set of circumstances, the worse it is likely to fail to cope when those circumstances change rapidly.
              So my little plot should do well - it's just about as far from optimum as I could wish !
              But I wonder how quickly the allium leaf miner has spread North in recent years ? Tree species move North at about 70km per decade - assuming there is suitable soil for them to occupy, and no farmers are busy ploughing under the seedlings - but what about invertebrates ? Can insect pests withstand occasional hard air frosts ? I know bluebottles can.
              Does anyone know what the optimum conditions for slugs are, temperature wise ?
              There's no point reading history if you don't use the lessons it teaches.

              Head-hunted member of the Nutter's Club - can I get my cranium back please ?

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              • #8
                Originally posted by snohare View Post



                I wonder just how the 50+ millions of England would manage to move house up to the peaty soils of Scotland,
                That would be a disaster,overpopulating the peaty areas of Scotland would surely destroy the prodution of the most flavoursome single malts

                Allium leaf miner is deffo in Telford

                Slugs I believe can go down upto 3 feet to avoid the cold
                He who smiles in the face of adversity,has already decided who to blame

                Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity

                Comment


                • #9
                  I have just read on the news that the Met Office has confirmed that we are having a average December as near as makes no difference.

                  Colin.
                  Potty by name Potty by nature.

                  By appointment of VeggieChicken Member of the Nutters club.


                  We hang petty thieves and appoint great ones to public office.

                  Aesop 620BC-560BC

                  sigpic

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Two_Sheds View Post
                    It's a pretty much normal winter here in the East - we don't normally get the cold weather until Jan/Feb/Mar anyway.
                    We have, however, already been warned that we are experiencing drought conditions, and the year hasn't even begun yet. Last spring was a struggle, we didn't have any rain for about 9 weeks, just when all the seedlings were being planted out
                    We've got plenty of rain here ........pretty much our average Winter , as we don't usually get much snow (last winter was exceptional)

                    Originally posted by bearded bloke View Post

                    Allium leaf miner is deffo in Telford

                    ............
                    and a right pita is is too ....I fleeced my leeks in Oct , and left out some sacrificial ones ....The unfleeced were all badly affected but fingers crossed only the odd one under the fleece got them ....Need more fleece for the next onslaught Mar/April........
                    S*d the housework I have a lottie to dig
                    a batch of jam is always an act of creation ..Christine Ferber

                    You can't beat a bit of garden porn

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                    • #11
                      Slugs I believe can go down upto 3 feet to avoid the cold
                      Jings !!

                      the Met Office has confirmed that we are having a average December as near as makes no difference.
                      I can actually believe that, certainly for southerly latitudes. But the devil's in the detail; if the preceding months have been warmer, and heat transfer between the atmosphere and ground has been increased by precipitation, not to mention the air itself holding reradiated heat more effectively nowadays (literally, the greenhouse effect) - then that will have a distinct effect on those plants that take specific soil temperature gradients as a cue to grow. Of course, over the long term, these changes in soil temperature will build up.
                      Up here I would say that they already have, to the degree that hard, deep ground frosts as we used to have as a matter of course, are now unknown.
                      And of course, context is everything. I don't know about the South of England, but when I was a teenager in the 80s we'd expect constant hard frost, plumes of condensation whenever we breathed, and snow of some sort lying on the higher ground, from November onwards, if not October. As for the chances of 26 degrees at Ballater last April....!
                      So although this winter's weather was always going to seem mild compared to the last couple of winters, over a longer comparative timespan, it is still following a warming trend.
                      The BIG prediction by the way for down South, climatewise, is Mediterranean temperatures, and most of the rain in winter - by far. So long term water shortages and potentially wildfires, are predicted to become much more common.
                      There's no point reading history if you don't use the lessons it teaches.

                      Head-hunted member of the Nutter's Club - can I get my cranium back please ?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I don't think there is any doubt the climate is warming in fact 2011 as just been pronounced the second warmest on record.

                        As to what is exactly causing it then of course opinions vary.

                        Colin
                        Potty by name Potty by nature.

                        By appointment of VeggieChicken Member of the Nutters club.


                        We hang petty thieves and appoint great ones to public office.

                        Aesop 620BC-560BC

                        sigpic

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Well, that's all cheered me up no end. Needless to say, I'll keep doing what I do and adapt as the circumstances change.

                          I'm still waiting for the ice age that was predicted by 'scientists' in the 1960s and 70s. By now we should have been in the thick of it but, as is usual with these things, he who makes predictions is doomed to be wrong.

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                          • #14
                            I just remember my history books telling me that it was hotter in the middle ages and then turned colder - when they had Ice Fairs on the Thames which froze over every year. Tese climate changes are nothing new IMO of course.
                            Global warming seems to have it's own Agenda
                            Middle Ages were warmer than today, say scientists - Telegraph

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by bearded bloke View Post
                              is there an evil scientist plot afoot,one where adverse weather conditions can differentiate between the wealth levels of those it affects.
                              No silly, it simply comes down to the rich being able to live where they like (eg, not on flood plains, or in earthquake zones) and the poor having to put up with what's left. A rich man can afford to irrigate in drought conditions, the poor just die
                              All gardeners know better than other gardeners." -- Chinese Proverb.

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