Another Wintry Blast heading our way

[Thelma Sanders]

Is this the same express that has promised us 100 days of snow in the one of the warmest winters on record? Take with a mount Everest of salt!

As a complete amateur with an interest in the weather, my take on the rest of this year is as follows:
Remainder of spring cold - there is considerable "northern blocking" forming over Greenland, courtesy of a sudden stratospheric warming event that happened in March. Last time we had a comparable event was in February 2013, which led to an exceptionally cold March.
Summer could start pleasantly warm and dry, if we are lucky. It is likely to go downhill rapidly if the current thoughts about El Nino rapidly changing into La Nina are correct. Anyone remember 2007 (cold and exceptionally wet/flooded)?
Autumn may give a brief respite, but winter looks likely to be cold. There are several factors which look likely to work together to make winter much colder than the last couple of years, but we will have to wait and see how some of them (La Nina in particular) pan out.

There's one good thing about all this. The likely scenario as I see it is so damn bad that almost any variation in it is likely to be an improvement!

Please be aware that I have no qualifications in this subject whatsoever. I very much hope my interpretation of what I have gathered from things I have seen and heard in various places is wrong.

Netweather ?

[Lumpy]

Whatever we will all deal and moan about it.

[Penellype]

Its not from any particular website. Its a combination of things I've learned about over a while.
Sudden stratospheric warmings lead to blocking a few weeks later, which if in the right place lead to northerly winds and cold. Blocking is hard to shift, hence the forecast for extended cold.
The summer forecast is based on "analogues" which are representations of what happened in previous similar years, in this case assuming that the El Nino turns into a La Nina quite quickly. These years tend to have very poor summers, which may start ok but usually feature mainly low pressure, leading to cool and wet conditions. If we are lucky the La Nina will be slower to develop or not develop at all, and this can give a much better summer here, but the models are all going for La Nina. There is also the "cold blob" in the atlantic, which is even stronger than last year - and last year this same cold blob was blamed for the cool summer.
The winter forecast is based on the things that I have seen in previous years winter forecasts. Some of these are already certainties - the sun is heading into solar minimum soon, having been in a (weak) solar maximum for the past few years. Low solar activity leads to higher chances of blocking and cold northerly or easterly winds in winter. We are also heading into an easterly phase of the "QBO" which tends to weaken the prevailing westerly winds which bring the sort of weather we have had in the past 2 winters - warm, wet and windy. We have been in a westerly QBO this winter. Then there is the La Nina to contend with, which may favour the cooler winter scenario, if it develops as expected. There are other factors that are important too, and it is too early to know how they will work out.

Long range forecasting (beyond 5 days) is exceptionally tricky and I hope I've misunderstood the signs I've seen.

[Potstubsdustbins]

I completely ignore any weather forecast beyond the next 24 hours, flippin heck they struggle to get that right.

[Thelma Sanders]

Yes, all the things I've been reading about, mostly on Netweather, which is why I asked

[Containergardener]

Hmmmm must say today thinking Oooh the wind has changed from cold northerly ....to cold westerly. What's that about !? No . Not allowed.
What would we do without our weather, what would we discuss hehe.

[Baldy]

Hmmmm must say today thinking Oooh the wind has changed from cold northerly ....to cold westerly. What's that about !? No . Not allowed.
What would we do without our weather, what would we discuss hehe.

Best suntan lotion?

Balders

[Gillykat]

LALALALAlalala *fingers in ears* Not Listening

I ordered a heatwave WEEKS ago because I want to grow melons this year

[Containergardener]

Baldy..what suntan lotion again ?

Melons gillykat

[Penellype]

I think we should send it back and demand a refund. We want summer...

[Muddy_Boots]

I can remember 3ft of snow in april of 1970 in thetford, Norfolk, in training in the army, in little 2 man tents, that was bl***y cold. ..

I was in a shell scrape during one of those nights buffs on STANTA with a poncho over the top and with just my face out the sleeping bag, can remember I had a rather bushy tash then and was woken up by the sentry and thought my face felt strange. After I had managed to get up and sorted my kit out I touched my tash to feel a huge lump of ice where it was, now that was really bl**dy cold

Think its time for me to put the bubble wrap up on my greenhouse, have resisted up to now but I've got seedlings emerging including 10 melon seedlings which I don't want to lose. That's a job for the morning before work.

[Jay22]

I was married 35 years ago on 24th April...in a blizzard!

[Gillykat]

Melons gillykat

Yep! Melons in sunny Northumberland I'm trying a few 'exotic' things this year like Cucamelons, Dragon's Egg Cucumber as well as two types of melon - Sugar Baby and Tigger

Mind you....as last year was my first ever year of growing veg ANYTHING that is not a pea, tomato or potato is exotic to me

[Containergardener]

Hope you don't get on frost on ya melons then...braver than me

[SaraJH]

I haven't read all the responses but this smacks to me of the sensationalism of the red tops.

We are all entering the 'snow age'

Balls, it's just another year with another season of unknown weather. As to entering the next ice age, I have more chance of winning the lottery than this weather pattern actually happening.