Penellype's Weather Channel

[Thelma Sanders]

To add insult to injury - my dahlia tuber order has arrived today They'll have to stay inside, but I don't want them to start growing yet
Decisions decisions..

[Martin H]

I've moved my sack of potatoes and my spare sweet pea seedlings into the greenhouse and plugged in the fan heater set to frost-free. The potato buckets and Dahlia tubers are already in there so everything should be happy for the next week or so except for the electricity bill.

[Penellype]

Today is likely to be the "warmest" day for quite some time. Make the most of it!



The little bump in temperature around Tuesday is an area of low pressure which will raise the upper air temperature slightly. Any precipitation associated with this will fall as snow.

Surface temperatures will depend on snow cover. If you have snow it will be much colder, day and night, than if you don't. Wednesday and Thursday are very likely to see temperatures below freezing all day over much or all of the country.

[Potstubsdustbins]

Thanks Pen, looks like I sit on my hands a little longer this year

[Penellype]

Thanks Pen, looks like I sit on my hands a little longer this year

Indeed. The models are rock solid with this cold spell. The middle of next week is going to be exceptionally cold (possibly record breaking for this time of year).

The models tonight are leaning towards a possible breakdown of the cold from around Friday, but it will crucially depend on how far north the low pressure responsible gets. To the north of the low there could be blizzards, to the south of it is warmer and snow may turn to rain. There is still considerable uncertainty as to when, where and how much snow, but a cold spell as sharp as this one almost always ends with snow as things start to warm up.

[Penellype]

Plenty of warnings of snow appearing on the met office website, including amber for Tuesday and Wednesday https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

This is quite a serious cold spell with likely travel disruption from snow in some areas, precise locations being difficult to forecast. There can also be power outages if lines are brought down by heavy snow. Even if you are not in one of the warning areas, be prepared for snow. The wind is likely to increase too on Thursday into Friday with blizzard conditions possible.

Not wishing to sound alarmist, but... Keep an eye on vulnerable neighbours and relatives and make sure they keep warm - elderly people can die from this sort of cold. Make sure pipes and outdoor taps are lagged as if they freeze they may burst when they defrost. Don't travel in the snow unless absolutely necessary - if you get stuck the cold will be brutal. Watch out for ice, particularly if the snow gets compacted or partially melts.

Stay safe - hopefully this will only last until the weekend, as models seem to be converging on less cold weather moving in at the end of the week (hence the blizzards).

[Potstubsdustbins]

Thanks to Pen not only am I sitting on my hands as regards gardening but I have some work booked for the lads tomorrow.

The rest of the week will be day by day I don't fancy sending 20k new van on to the icy roads with some of the idiots out there. Sooner a couple of days off than 3 weeks in the garage.

Pen you could charge for this advice........

[Penellype]

I am doing my best to sit on my hands, although I am desperate to plant potatoes and carrots and get all the buckets of compost out of my garage!

One thing I forgot to mention specifically was the wind chill. The combination of freezing air from Siberia, snow on the ground causing evaporative cooling as it sublimes into dry air (very low dew points) and near gale force winds will result in wind chill factors on Wednesday and Thursday well into minus double figures in places (-18 has been forecast for parts of Wales). This is dangerously cold and is in frostbite territory. If you have to go out in it, wear gloves, make sure that you cover your head and have a scarf that you can put over your face and ears.

We have got so used to the papers writing scary headlines about cold that never appears that there is a real danger that people will underestimate the severity of this. Don't get caught out, it isn't worth it.

[Thelma Sanders]

We have got so used to the papers writing scary headlines about cold that never appears that there is a real danger that people will underestimate the severity of this. Don't get caught out, it isn't worth it.

My family keep laughing at me when I mention the forecast for this week - and yes there's plenty that is funny about me but not about the weather warnings!

[Potstubsdustbins]

Your right Pen they 'cry wolf' that often that folks don't believe them and could easily get caught out. The warnings are so firm this time the lady has even changed her shopping day, she going tomorrow then if need be she will stay in the house if it gets bad.

[bazzaboy]

Yes, I have to venture quite far into Lincolnshire tomorrow and am in some doubt about the wisdom of it, particularly as it's supposedly to look at snowdrops.... Snowdrops under snow, spot the snowdrop! And then get stuck in traffic jams for a few hours... The weather warnings that were originally forecast for Tuesday have now been brought back to Monday (and even snow forecast in Cornwall, I noticed....). I'll decide in the morning, any snow and I'll reprogramme, it's hardly essential travel and any additional vehicles adding to the chaos is a bit irresponsible. More responsible would be to light a fire, make a cuppa, read GYO and leave the snow to the snowdrops who know how to deal with it!

[mrswadders]

Snowing g heavily here in Lincolnshire near the wash

[Cadalot]

Penellype Have you seen this site? #uksnow Map - See where it is snowing in the UK right now!

[Penellype]

Penellype Have you seen this site? #uksnow Map - See where it is snowing in the UK right now!

Yes, I've seen that - it relies on people reporting snow, so its fine if you live in a densely populated area as lots of people will report it, but if you live in a rural area there may be nobody anywhere near you that knows about it or can be bothered. I prefer to look at the radar with weather type on and watch the direction of movement and also how the number and shape of the showers change, as that gives you a good idea of what is happening, likely to happen and how fast new showers are bubbling up. Its not infallible, but its good.

The best freely available radar I have found is https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar which updates at 5 minute intervals with about a 10 minute delay.

There is already a lot more snow showers around than most of the weather apps predicted:



This is because the models do not handle snow showers at all well and tend to underestimate them. Note also that the pale pink areas may appear to be snowing but nothing may reach the ground as some evaporation can take place on the way down, particularly when (as at the moment) the dew points are very low (air is dry).

[bikermike]

It's proper snowing in Essex right now!