Penellype's Weather Channel

[Penellype]

Yellow warning of thunderstorms for this evening into tonight for the south east corner. Showers are starting to appear in the area and are likely to intensify. As always with showers, not everyone will get one.

[lottie dolly]

Where we are,we tend most off the time to miss the worst of any bad weather,this year add extra heat,seems we are sheltered a bit,thanks Pen for the updates.

[1Bee]

Waaah. Haven't been on the plot for a week and harvest's a-wasting. I have Sat and next Weds free, but guess when the worst of the weather's forecast??? *sulk*

[Lumpy]

I saw on the news that the Met Office has had a meeting with an unknown number of councils to advise them that long term forecasters think ‘it’ might be above average temperatures etc into October.

[Jay22]

Well it’s cooler up here again, we are never happy though as I’d like it a wee touch warmer, not much just a wee touch.

[Penellype]

Waaah. Haven't been on the plot for a week and harvest's a-wasting. I have Sat and next Weds free, but guess when the worst of the weather's forecast??? *sulk*

Forecast is far from cut and dried at the moment, particularly regarding the speed at which the low bringing the rain over the weekend moves in. You may (or may not) get lucky on Saturday.

At the moment anything beyond the weekend is subject to serious uncertainty. The 3 main models produce 3 completely different solutions by day 10 (midnight runs) and the GFS 6am run adds a 4th into the mix. They basically haven't a clue.

[Penellype]

I saw on the news that the Met Office has had a meeting with an unknown number of councils to advise them that long term forecasters think ‘it’ might be above average temperatures etc into October.

There's warm and warm. July was 3.1 degrees warmer than average and the 3rd hottest July on record (the 4th hottest month in all as one of the hottest was in August). Just because the Met Office are advising that it may be warmer than average does not mean a heatwave. The contingency planners guidance released by the Met Office deals with probability of warmer/colder and wetter/drier and says nothing much about the magnitude of the anomaly.

Temperature https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binarie...emp-aso-v2.pdf

Precipitation https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binarie...cip-aso-v2.pdf

[Penellype]

Still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. The low that arrives over the weekend contains the remains of tropical storm Debby. While it is no longer a tropical storm, it does contain some tropical air and therefore brings a sharp rise in upper air temperature. It looks likely that this system will move in on Saturday night into Sunday, giving many places a wet day. Some parts of the south east may become very warm before the low arrives, depending on how much sunshine there is before it clouds over. The sharp rise in temperature as the warm front from the low arrives can be clearly seen on the ensemble forecast, at the same time as the frontal rain band:



Note the significant uncertainties creeping in as the individual lines start to move apart as early as Monday. By Wednesday there is a huge spread of upper air temperatures from the ensemble members. This is typical of the difficulty that models have with the remnants of tropical storms and hurricanes. Reading between the lines, there is a lot of up and down going on, which indicates a westerly flow with areas of low pressure and transient ridges of high pressure moving across the country. Therefore expect changeable weather but some dry days and fluctuating temperatures.

Some of the lines in the later part of the chart are very warm, but others are quite cool and there is therefore a lot of uncertainty about any return of a heatwave towards the end of the month.

[sandspider]

I installed a new waterbutt last week, and tested a new sprinkler I'd just bought. So all this rain is thanks to me!! ��

[bazzaboy]

I installed a new waterbutt last week, and tested a new sprinkler I'd just bought. So all this rain is thanks to me!! ��

Thanks, sandspider, if you could send a bit more to north Midlands we'd be grateful. Evidently yesterday there was rain approaching from both the South and the West but neither lot reached us, in the end a bit of drizzle was the best it could do. Blue sky today. Hardly any rain here since May (not sure of exact amounts/dates), parts of garden have big cracks, a village public well of yesteryear was recently revealed by collapsing due to earth shrinkage (caused a bit of panic as folk initially thought it a "sinkhole", lucky no-one fell down it as quite deep...). I recently harvested some garden potatoes and they were distinctly warm to the touch, not quite baked underground but on their way! Not tried allotment potatoes yet as they now seem to be set in concrete! So a few centimetres of rain would be good (over time please, not all at once!) If you can arrange that, many thanks.

[Penellype]

Plenty of rain about tomorrow so you should get some relief from the drought.

[Penellype]

Yellow warning of thunderstorms for parts of the east today (including here, which I am not looking forward to after last time...). The low pressure that brought the weekend rain is moving off into the north sea and will be replaced by a ridge of high pressure for tomorrow.

The general picture remains changeable with another low approaching from the west. An active cold front will move in on Wednesday into Thursday and could bring quite a bit of rain in places. After this there is a lot of uncertainty in timing, but it looks likely that another low will arrive bringing more rain over the weekend, when it could become quite windy in northern areas.

[1Bee]

I did indeed get lucky on Saturday. A bit of drizzle, but nothing that even needed a coat, and I managed a good work session in the morning, an hour and a half messing about with the boys in the afternoon, and a couple of hours getting slightly damp in the evening.

Sunday was wetter, but by then I had a lot of harvest to process!!

[bazzaboy]

We (north Midlands) had a couple of millimetres of rain last Friday (2nd shower since May). A further 1.1 centimetres was initially promised from midnight last night but so far hasn’t arrived (the prediction moved to 10.00am this morning but nothing happened then either and moved to 2.00pm this afternoon and has just moved to 3.00pm so a moveable feast). The only other thing to arrive is a warning from Blight Watch that increased humidity means we are now in a full period of “Hutton Alert” and blight-prone. Win some lose some…

[Penellype]

Today's rain is in the form of thundery showers, so not everywhere will get one. We have had several here, but we are in the yellow warning area. Apps are lousy at predicting this sort of thing, particularly the timing of any showers, so ignore that and look at the radar instead.

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar