Penellype's Weather Channel

[Gillykat]

It definitely has an icy bite to the wind this afternoon here in Alnwick.....I almost needed to put a coat on!!!!

I picked a good week to be off as I've got loads done on the plot It no longer looks like a mess

[Penellype]

Yellow warnings tonight into tomorrow for snow (much of Scotland) and ice (much of UK) as the colder weather starts to make its presence felt. There may also be wintery showers elsewhere - the east coast could see snow showers as the wind is from the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/...ate=2019-01-16

[Penellype]

Yellow warning of snow today, mainly over higher ground in the north. Snow is very difficult to forecast accurately and warnings may appear or be updated at short notice. Keep an eye on the met office warnings page, especially if you need to travel.

[1Bee]

Thanks Pene. Stay safe, everyone.

[Chippy Minton]

Just been snowing a good 'un here on the drive home. Very wet but sticking on the verges. More forecast. Apparently heavy snow "up top" of the M62.

Stay safe and warm.......

[Gillykat]

A weather warning for snow popped up yesterday afternoon from 3pm till midnight here in Alnwick and when I looked at the satellite pic there WAS a lot just outside the town. Yet it never materialised thankfully

Today is just a grey day of thick cloud.....I can live with that

[Penellype]

The weather models continue to give forecasters major headaches. Just a few examples:
Thursday night was forecast to be around zero here. One of the local weather stations recorded -4.1.
Friday evening we were forecast a cold front that was breaking up, with patchy rain and some possible sleet on the back edge of it. We actually got nearly 10mm, much of which fell as wet snow which was still around in places in the morning.
Yesterday was supposed to be rather damp and drizzly most of the day. It wasn't.
Last night was forecast to be cold, -1 or less. The lowest temperature reached was +2.5.
Today was meant to be cold (2-3 degrees) and sunny all day. It was not too bad at around 5, and the sun finally emerged at around 3pm.

If the models struggle to get the current day's forecast right, what hope have they of forecasting the next few days correctly? Very little.

So up until yesterday we were heading into a cold spell with an easterly wind at the end of the week, the sort of thing that barely allows the daytime temperature to rise much above freezing. That's completely disappeared for now - the forecast temperature for Friday is now around 10 degrees. I wouldn't trust it not to decide to flip back to cold.

Given the horrendous mess the models are making of all this, all I am prepared to say about the coming weather is that the next 2-3 days are likely to be chilly with night frost if the skies clear. On Monday night into Tuesday a cold front moves down across the country. This will bring snow to Scotland, and anyone's guess of rain, sleet or snow elsewhere. Be prepared for snow on high ground, don't be surprised if it arrives on lower ground, although currently the models have backed off this too. Keep an eye out for warnings nearer the time, as this will be an active front so it could produce quite a lot of snow if the various variables line up correctly.

Be prepared too for more forecasts of very cold weather, which may or may not arrive. Don't believe the scare stories in the papers - they have even less of a clue than the weather models!

[Penellype]

So the forecast for a mild end to the week was correct, with atlantic winds bringing mild but sometimes cloudy and damp weather today and tomorrow. All change Saturday night into Sunday as a low pressure moves south, dragging in arctic gales. There are yellow warnings for snow in Scotland and wind on the western side of the UK, but even here the forecast wind is pretty strong. It will also feel bitterly cold.

Next week is likely to be cold with the potential for some snow at times. Tuesday is a possibility at the moment, but as always this is uncertain and details could change. Keep an eye on the forecasts and warnings as this sort of weather is incredibly difficult to forecast much in advance.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

[Penellype]

Yellow warnings of snow and ice for much of the UK tomorrow. This is a knife-edge scenario - rain will move in from the west and meet cold air. It is likely to turn to sleet or snow, especially snow over hills but also possibly to lower levels - this could depend on how heavy the precipitation is (heavy rain turns to snow more easily). The south east is probably most in the firing line, being nearer to the low pressure responsible, but snow could fall almost anywhere. After the front has passed the air will be colder and anything that has fallen (rain or snow) will freeze. Therefore ice is a significant hazard too.

More of the same, but probably more widespread snow risk on Thursday into Friday.

Keep an eye on the forecasts and warnings as this is a very finely balanced situation and forecasts can rapidly change. Looking out of the window (and at the radar) is probably the most accurate thing to do.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar - turn on weather type at the top to see sleet in green and snow in pink.

[1Bee]

Yes, I have Tuesdays off and I make my decisions on whether it's a 'plot day' or a 'batch cooking' day in winter based on the forecast.

Be braced for excessive fronts of lasagne with a chance of freezer slow cooker meals...

[Penellype]

More warnings today of snow, ice and fog (which will be freezing) as a front moves into the cold air from the west. Most of the snow is likely to be in the southern half of the country and there is some disagreement over amounts and the northern extent of the snow. The south and south east are definitely in the firing line, although snow may turn to rain later, but anywhere upto north Wales across to the Humber may see snow today or over night.

The next few nights will be very cold (as was last night) - don't believe weather apps. Last night's forecast from the GFS model for York was -1, which they amended over night to -2. In reality it was -3 by 8pm and I woke up to -7. The next 3 nights are forecast to be 0, -2 and -2 here, but I am expecting an extra 3-5 degrees of frost on top of that as nothing has happened to prevent it.

Keep up to date with the weather warnings, and take care out there.

[Nicos]

Thanks for the updates Pen
Much appreciated .

[1Bee]

You are our oracle.

Iron-hard frosts here, but not snow exactly where we are. Plenty in Cumbria as a whole, though!

[Penellype]

A real patchwork of weather warnings for snow and ice today in various parts of the UK https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings.

Frequent and sometimes heavy snow showers are blowing in off the north sea and these are moving much further inland than the warning area (reaching Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield for example). At the same time the air is warming up and lying snow is starting to melt in places. The ground is very cold underneath and this is a classic skating rink scenario, so please take care out there!

[Penellype]

Today should be the last of the cold days, at least for now. There may be a frost early tonight in eastern areas, but milder weather is moving in from the west, with inevitable wind and rain. This is the start of a more changeable and milder spell, with fewer frosts and more in the way of rain, especially in the west.

Whether we have seen the last of the winter cold is another matter. Although the shorter term models seem to be pointing towards less cold weather, there is still time for more cold and snow, and it is simply too soon to tell whether or not the cold will return.