Tweet
Generally more unsettled for the next week, with some fine weather but showers possible today and becoming increasingly likely by mid week, especially in the east, possibly heavy and thundery. No sign of a return to hot weather from the shorter range models, which continue the changeable/unsettled theme for the foreseeable future, with any ridges of high pressure not lasting more than a couple of days. The longer range CFS model is totally different, forecasting a mainly dry and possibly increasingly warm July, but I prefer to believe the shorter range ones which are probably more accurate.
-
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy -
Most places can expect a dry day today, but things will deteriorate from the west tomorrow. Becoming increasingly unsettled through the week and everywhere should see some rain.
Very uncertain from the weekend, with some ensemble members showing some very hot air coming up from Spain again, which is likely only to last a day or 2, if it happens at all, before it breaks down, probably into thunderstorms. A roughly equal number of members show things becoming rather cool and unsettled, so its a case of wait and see how things progress.
Btw today is St Swithin's day - whatever it does today it is supposed to do the same for the next 40 days. This is one of the old weather sayings that is never correct, and this year will be no exception.Last edited by Penellype; 15-07-2019, 12:00 PM.A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard NimoyComment
-
-
Rain should arrive in your area by the end of today associated with low pressure to the north west of Scotland. This low hangs around for the rest of the week producing showery rain just about everywhere. By Friday a secondary low is forecast to develop to the south of the main low, bringing more general wet weather from the west on Friday and Saturday. This moves away into Sunday allowing a ridge of high pressure to develop, giving a much drier day.Originally posted by 1Bee View Post
That's the easy bit - beyond that the forecasts can only be described as chaotic. As the high builds to the south and east the low that brought this week's rain is pushed back westwards and probably merges with another low which contains the tropical remains of ex-hurricane Barry. Models are appalling at handling ex-hurricanes and we have just about every possible outcome amongst the GFS ensemble members:
The hottest of these, pulling air up from Africa or Spain, would produce temperatures well into the 30s, while the cooler ones simply show the low moving across the country giving cool and unsettled weather. Earlier runs and other models are similarly uncertain with wild swings between runs and within the ensembles.
So, next week could be anything from hot and dry to cool and wet or just around average, really. We will have to wait and see.A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard NimoyComment
-
You do a fab job, Penellype. I'm tremendously grateful.
I put the hose on an empty raised bed yesterday, gave it a good strong spray for ten minutes. When I planted the leeks a few minutes later, it was sludgy on top, but bone dry an inch down.... it's going to take a lot to restore the capillary action through the soil....Comment
-
Anyone looking at the radar today might be forgiven for thinking there was a lot of light rain/drizzle about, but there isn't...
Yuck!A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard NimoyComment
-
Eeep! I'm pretty tolerant of most invertebrates, but on that scale..... *runs for the hills*Comment
-
we have had proper rain today!
I think this may be the first time that the south-east is ahead on the water-from-the-sky stakes...Comment
-
We've had the lightest shower....! It's rained properly all around the plot, but the plot has mostly stayed dry. It's like someone's cursed it! I was watching the radar, and the clouds parted magically about a mile SW of the plot, and re-converged a few miles NE of it...Comment
-
Ants????...good grief!"Nicos, Queen of Gooooogle" and... GYO's own Miss Marple
Location....Normandy FranceComment
-
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard NimoyComment
-
Proper rain!!! ��Comment
-
As you have probably heard, it is going to get rather warm this week and it is possible that the July temperature record may fall in the south. However, don't expect a string of dry and sunny days (apart from possibly Tuesday). The hot air coming up from Spain is very unstable due to low pressure to our west, which is what is sucking up the hot air (a classic "Spanish plume"). This means an increasing risk of thunderstorms as the low edges closer. These could be violent and start as early as Tuesday night, and continue on and off for the rest of the week until cooler air wins the battle some time between Thursday and the weekend (depending on which model you look at).
The result of this is that it will be revoltingly hot and humid, including at night, with a risk of heavy rain or hail if you get caught in a storm. It may also be quite windy at times with gusty winds accompanying the storms. Weather apps are likely to perform badly in predicting when and where the storms are likely to be, and the radar may be slow to warn you of developing showers. Therefore the sky is probably the best indicator of what is going on. The hotter it gets the more likely it is to thunder, and if you see dark clouds which appear to be rotating, take cover!Last edited by Penellype; 22-07-2019, 07:41 AM.A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard NimoyComment
-
Thunderstorm warning for much of the UK for tonight:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2019-07-23
As always, not everywhere will get one.
This is a most unusual scenario, and one I don't ever remember seeing before in the UK. Normally hot weather is followed by thunderstorms as cooler air moves in and the heat then moves away. Tonight's storm risk is caused by hot air moving into "cooler" air - yes, today is the cooler bit!!! A second wave of storms is possible towards the end of the week as the heat is pushed away. In between, record breaking temperatures (both maximum and over night minimum) are possible around Thursday.A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard NimoyComment
-
Yellow warnings of heavy rain today and tomorrow across a large part of the UK as the front that brought the cooler weather has got stuck. Thunderstorms are a possibility as well.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2019-07-27A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard NimoyComment
Comment