Penellype's Weather Channel

[Penellype]

I think in general the short term (3-5 day) forecasts are remarkably accurate a lot of the time considering the number of variables involved. The number of times rain is predicted to arrive at a specific time and does so within a few minutes is staggering, as is the modelling of lines of showers at times. It can go badly wrong though, and those are the times that we tend to remember.

The main purpose of starting this thread was to warn in advance where possible if something nasty was on the way so that people have time to prepare, for frost for example. Sometimes life intervenes and I don't get the time, but hopefully people find what I say helpful to some degree.

[Thelma Sanders]

Pen, I hope you didn't think my disparaging remarks were aimed at you, they really weren't you know.. you've more patience than me to carry on trying.

As you say short term forecasts aren't too bad, but long-term ones are fairly hopeless - it makes me wonder about the really long-term climate forecasts as well tbh - but that is a very different argument and really not for this forum lol

[Penellype]

Very mild today with the air coming up from the Bahamas - temperature records for January could be broken. Also very windy with warnings of gales or severe gales in parts of the north https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2020-01-07

[Penellype]

Keep an eye on the Met Office warnings page as low pressure systems are set to keep rolling in, bringing wind and rain to various places. A little snow is possible at times on high ground in the north, but the main focus will be on heavy rain and gales. The tracks of these storms can be hard to predict so warning areas may change.

[Penellype]

Storm Brendan has been named and will arrive on Monday. There are warnings of strong winds in western areas and eastern Scotland. Keep an eye on these as areas may change. The jet stream is very active at present and is likely to produce more of these little secondary lows which develop very rapidly and usually carry strong winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2020-01-13

[Penellype]

More wind and rain today, but a change to higher pressure for the weekend. This will bring drier conditions with possible frost at night depending on cloud cover. Fog is also a possiblity, again more likely if skies are clear during the day, when upper air temperatures are likely to be warmer than those at the surface.

What happens next is uncertain but some of the model runs are showing a sharp cold snap in about 10 days time:



There is a lot of scatter, but the colder runs would certainly feel a lot more like winter than anything we have seen so far.

[sandspider]

My BBC forecast is suggesting -2c tonight, it's barely been below 8c for a couple of weeks.

[Penellype]

My BBC forecast is suggesting -2c tonight, it's barely been below 8c for a couple of weeks.

So far this January we have been roughly equalling the all time January record temperature, but things are about to change and it will feel a lot colder over the weekend. A frost is certainly a possibility if skies are clear tonight.

[Gillykat]

There was certainly an icy nip in the air an hour ago when I popped along to the shops! I'm looking forward to getting stick in to the allotment this weekend and next week too if the forecast stays dry

[sandspider]

Yes, we had a hard frost last night. Forecast is bright and cold and dry for a couple of days, makes a change from the endless rain!

[Gillykat]

So far it's looking calm and settled for the next 7-10 days so fingers crossed Got a ton of jobs to catch upon

[quanglewangle]

Good news: big orange thing seen in sky for first time in ages and wall-to-wall blue sky.

Bad news: air temperate down to 3°C (from 10°C lately) and grass frost away from walls and buildings.

OK; outside jobs now feasible, but will freeze while doing them.

[Thelma Sanders]

So far it's looking calm and settled for the next 7-10 days so fingers crossed Got a ton of jobs to catch upon

So have I - but won't be starting them until it warms up Cold isn't good for creaky bones!

[Penellype]

Unfortunately at this time of year dry and sunny usually (although not always) goes with frost and potential fog. There is a yellow warning of fog in parts of the west midlands today. I suspect this will become more widespread in the next couple of days. Temperatures are likely to stay close to or possibly even below freezing in the fog.

Later in the week the high is forecast to slip slightly to the east which brings up a warmer, southwesterly flow. This is likely to mean much more cloud but probably milder days and nights.

[quanglewangle]

The irony is that one of the jobs is scaling a ladder tied to a 4m pole to take down weather instuments. They are in dire need of maintenance and, in some cases, repairs.