Penellype's Weather Channel

[BeeHappyFlutterBy]

But they are forecasting a good weekend

Ohh yes please, pretty, pretty please

[Penellype]

The forecast for this weekend has been extremely hard to pin down, but seems to be resolving into mostly fine for the south, probably unsettled for Scotland (particularly the west) and showery in between. Monday could be rather more unsettled for most, with only the south remaining dry, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty still.

[Jay22]

I'm emigrating!

[Penellype]

Monday looking a lot better now away from Scotland, and potentially quite hot in the south.

Lots of uncertainties still - the remains of Hurricane Harvey are causing the models problems, as are some areas of low pressure which are currently to the south of us.

[Penellype]

Not too bad a week coming up, and by the end of the week even Scotland could be seeing better weather.

The ensemble chart for York looks like this:



There is very little rain forecast, but the uncertainties still surrounding Wednesday's low pressure systems are still showing in the rainfall predictions. The sharp drop in temperature on Tuesday is a cold front which is introducing a cooler and fresher air mass but may not carry much rain with it by the time it reaches much of England and Wales.

Tomorrow looks warm for the south and not bad at all elsewhere:



The low pressure to the north is responsible for Scotland's rather more unsettled and cooler weather.

Wednesday's chart shows the cooler air moving south:



Note the lows in the atlantic (these are not Harvey, which is staying in America for the moment). These will help the high pressure to their east build over us towards the end of the week, giving much of the country a very pleasant few days:



Currently the high is forecast to hang around for a few days, but low pressure (possibly containing the remains of Harvey, I'm not sure) returns on the latest run by the middle of the following week:



This is much too far away for any sort of certainty though.

[Penellype]

Potential for some thundery showers to clip the south east tonight, and some more general rain in the south east corner tomorrow, courtesy of the low pressure to the south mentioned in an earlier post.

[Ms-T]

I hope we get the rain, really need it here.

[Penellype]

Could be quite a chilly night tonight, with the potential for ground frost in vulnerable areas. Possibly time to think of closing the greenhouse door tonight!

[Jay22]

I've only a blowaway tomato house...closed it last night as it was rather chilly!

[Penellype]

The weather is wasting little time turning into autumn. Already we have had a couple of chilly nights and misty or foggy mornings in places. Now the models are forecasting our first taste of a proper autumn storm next weekend:



This is a low that has got caught up in the jet stream, causing it to develop rapidly. The timing and position of the low is very uncertain, but all the models are seeing it so be aware that there could be some very autumnal wet and windy weather (gales possible) around next weekend.

[Jimmy]

It's raining again in Preston.
I think forecasting the weather is a bit pointless.
Just say tomorrow it's going to rain, and in most instances you will be right!
Damp and dismal Jimmy.

[Penellype]

It does look very wet over the next couple of weeks I'm afraid, and the west always gets more rain than the east when the weather is coming from the atlantic (as now).

The current ensemble chart for Manchester shows this well:



There might be a drier interlude tomorrow, but after that it looks consistently wet and it will be windy at times too.

Huge uncertainties beyond the next few days are due to the impossibility of accurately forecasting the tracks of dying hurricanes. Irma, currently approaching category 5 and alarmingly heading straight for the Carribean and Florida on current forecasts, is likely to disappear inland, but the next storm, likely to be named Jose, is already forming off the African coast and is forecast to develop and head into the atlantic. The track of this storm, assuming it develops as forecast, will be crucial in determining what happens to our weather in the medium term.

[Penellype]

Quick update:

Cold, wet and windy.

Big low pressure system to the north is sending rain and showers across the country. The low will move to the east during the week as a high sets up in the atlantic. The effect of this is to push the wind round into the north. Expect chilly days (feeling cold in strong winds which may touch gale force at times), and very chilly nights for the time of year. Becoming less wet and a little warmer (especially at night) by the weekend as high pressure builds, but don't expect much sunshine as it is likely to be a cloudy high.

Dismal for September, but spare a thought for those affected by the awful hurricanes in the Caribbean and Florida. Makes our little weather woes seem totally insignificant.

[Penellype]

The met office have issued yellow warnings of wind for the south west today and for parts of northern England tomorrow night into Wednesday. See Weather warnings - Met Office for details. The exact track of the winds on Tuesday-Wednesday is still uncertain and some models have this further south than the Met Office warning area. Everywhere will be windy, so make sure things like garden furniture and wheelie bins are secured and check plant supports. Trees are still in leaf and if the forecast 70mph gusts are correct these could easily be damaged. There could be quite a bit of rain with this too.

After that lot passes through the wind goes into the north and things get rather chilly for a while. This is the latest ensemble chart for York:



Keep an eye on forecast over night temperatures and be ready to bring in or cover vulnerable plants if frost is forecast.

[Penellype]

The Met Office have named tonight's storm Aileen and issued an amber warning for wind to go with yellow warnings for wind and rain.

Weather warnings - Met Office