Penellype's Weather Channel

[Greenleaves]

Thanks Penellype but could your order some sunshine please?

[Penellype]

Thanks Penellype but could your order some sunshine please?

I wish I could!

[Penellype]

I used the word "ominous" in my last post. Since then things have got markedly worse.

3 of the 4 main models (GFS, ECMWF and Met Office) are seeing high pressure building over Scandinavia over the weekend. The Canadian GEM model does not see this, and neither do some of the members of the GFS ensemble, at the moment. But with each run more of the members agree. If this is right, the "beast from the east" is set to return.

This is the GFS forecast for midnight on Sunday:



This looks very familiar, with high pressure over Scandinavia and the isobars stretching back to Russia, dragging cold air in from the east.

Several of the forecasters have said things along the lines of "don't worry, it won't be as cold now, the sun is getting stronger all the time". Yes it is, but it is only March, and it can still be damagingly cold.

This is the current situation as seen by the GFS ensembles:



7 of the 20 members including the operational (highest resolution therefore in theory most accurate) take the upper air temperature (for York) well below the -10 isotherm, with a further 3 almost reaching -10, making 50% agreement. (Last time, for comparison, I think we made -14 or -15 in York).

This is the upper air situation by midnight on Monday from the GFS:



The -10 isotherm is well over the eastern side of the country and the -15 is just about touching Kent. There would be hard over night frosts and anything falling out of the sky would be snow. Snow showers along eastern coasts would be almost a certainty with this pattern.

The only consolations are that this time (at the moment) the cold is not forecast to last quite as long as last time, and (at the moment) there is not as much precipitation forecast and therefore there may not be as much snow. However, there is time for the length of the cold to increase on the forecast and these situations are notorious for developing little snow producing low pressures at short notice, as happened last time.

This is not yet a certainty, but it is unfortunately looking increasingly likely that another sharp cold snap is on its way. My garage heater is staying firmly in place, primed and ready for use.

[Thelma Sanders]

I don't like the look of the charts from this morning either - at this stage it doesn't look like I'll be planting my potatoes on St Patrick's day *sigh*
Oh well better to be warned in advance.....

Spring will arrive eventually - I hope.

[AmateurOne]

Weather has got to improve soon!

[Penellype]

Its horribly wet again today here - my garden is under water in more places than I remember seeing before, and it is still raining.

Don't know which is worse - too much water or too cold. Both seems more than a little unfair.

[AmateurOne]

Ordered another water button to connect as overflow to my existing one. Filled the existing one in no time and limited usage is having no effect on volume! Can't rain forever and I figure I'll be grateful to have two full ones when we get a drought in April....

[Greenleaves]

As they say, it is what it is

[Penellype]

I've been filling dustbins and collecting as much water as I can at my allotment - starting to feel a little foolish at scooping up loads of snow, but you can't know what's coming until it arrives! At some point it will stop raining so much, but don't ask me when!

[Greenleaves]

Is that a dare Penellype?

[Penellype]

Is that a dare Penellype?

Well, you can ask, but I don't know the answer!

[Chippy Minton]

Driving back from Barnsley today it was strange to see water spurting up out of the road drains. I always thought the water was supposed to go down the drain Hey-ho, each to their own.

Wet followed by another Beast from the East, there's virtually no greenhouse or window sill space already

[Penellype]

The water comes up the drains because there is nowhere else for it to go. When the drain is full the pressure of water trying to run down it can literally blow off manhole covers and cause a fountain.

[Penellype]

This morning everyone is in agreement that beast from the east part 2 is on its way:



At least the rain has let up for today, but it will be back into the west tomorrow and we are in for another deluge on Thursday/Friday before it all freezes. Max temperature between 3am Sat and 9am Mon here is forecast to be just 1C, zero during the day on Sat. The longer term forecasts towards the end of the graph are trending colder too.

Just as an aside, a while back I mentioned WWT - Weather Without Technology - Welcome. He has forecast a long, cold winter and a cold, wet spring, and there is a lot of accuracy in that (with the exception of a mild January). If you follow his moon phase forecasts, the full moon on 2nd March forecast frost (pretty accurate), the 3rd quarter on 9th forecast cold and high winds (not great, but it gets windier tomorrow and Thursday) but the 3rd phase of the moon is for snow and rain. That 3rd moon phase (new moon) is on... 17th March. I'm not saying his system is quite as accurate as he makes out, but it does sometimes land quite spookily on the exact day that a sharp change in the weather takes place, and this is one of those times. Let's hope the next moon phase (1st quarter, 24th March) is equally accurate, as that one forecasts fair and mild, although the blue moon, on 31st, forecasts more snow and rain...

As always, we shall see.

[bikermike]

Metcheck is suggesting we get a weekend of around 0C and sleet... (North London)
Does that tie in with your models?