Penellype's Weather Channel

[Penellype]

Looks about right for what the models are currently forecasting.

[Greenleaves]

In North Hampshire the forecast is for snow flurries Saturday and snow Sunday....let's hope this is winters last stand....though I doubt it

[Penellype]

A subtle change has crept into the models in the last few runs, which moves the high pressure from Scandinavia south west over us instead of west towards Greenland. This cuts off the coldest of the air, which runs underneath the high, fairly quickly. The weekend will still be cold, but daytime temperatures should get back to something less cold early next week. Night frosts will still occur though, especially if skies clear.

The high pressure reduces the snow risk, although there will be some snow showers around particularly over the weekend, but the widespread snow forecast a couple of days ago, by the ECMWF in particular, seems to be less likely now. There is less rain in the forecast (after Friday) too.



Compare the width of the cold dip with the previous graph I posted.

[Penellype]

Still on course for a plunge in temperature tomorrow night as bitterly cold air moves in from the east. As I suggested earlier, some disturbances are possible which will increase the risk of snow. There are warnings for snow and ice in places from the met office particularly but not exclusively in the east https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings. Keep an eye on these as the affected areas may change.

Daytime temperatures over the weekend will not be much above freezing, with significant wind chill - unusually cold for the middle of March, although not as cold as last time. It will turn less cold during the day at the start of next week but nights will still be frosty.

I'm afraid I can't promise that this will be the last cold snap. The jet stream remains to the south of us and as long as that is the case we are vulnerable to further cold from the north or the east.

[Penellype]

More warnings appearing, including some amber for snow and ice on Saturday night, as well as yellow for snow, ice and wind today, tomorrow and Sunday. Keep an eye on the warnings page https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings especially if you are planning to travel, as this situation is constantly changing.

ECMWF forecast snow depth map https://weather.us/model-charts/euro...318-0900z.html

[Lumpy]

Ta Pen for your forcasts.........as far as the next few days are concerned.........Piggin Ell.

Please nore Piggin Ell is a professional weather term for ^^$£*****K

[emarisa28]

So with us having a proper cold winter this year, any predictions what this summer will be like in the south east?

[Greenleaves]

Sometimes sunny, sometimes not and sometimes wet

[Penellype]

So with us having a proper cold winter this year, any predictions what this summer will be like in the south east?

It is too early to take much notice of any of the weather model predictions for summer. However, there are 2 sources that I find interesting that may provide some insight into the coming summer, if you remember that you are looking for general patterns for the 3 months of summer, not the detailed forecast for, say 6th July. One of these is https://www.gavsweathervids.com/summ...r-forecast.php, where Gavin Partridge, assisted by data from James Akrill, analyses past summers that have followed similar conditions to the ones we have experienced recently. This is ongoing and builds towards his summer forecast at the end of spring. The other is David King's Weather Without Technology - Forecasts, which I am taking quite an interest in, despite my "common sense" self thinking it is nonsense. In his spring forecast he gives several hints about what he thinks summer will be like.

I hope that these 2 websites are comprehensively wrong. If not, we are in for a late-starting cool, wet summer with just the odd warmer slot from time to time - the south east is probably in the best position for this, with warm air coming up from France, but often followed smartly by thunderstorms. David King goes so far as to say "definitely no prolonged hot spells or BBQ summer".

From a more scientific point of view, the current setup of easterly QBO and low end of solar cycle which has at least contributed to the colder winter, is not going away for summer. The QBO will probably be back to westerly by next winter, but the easterly phase favours northern blocking (similar to what has been causing a cold, wet winter), which is never a good thing in summer. There is also a huge anomaly with years ending in 8, which appear to have almost invariably diabolical summers although no natural cycle has been identified that accounts for this.

So if forced to come up with a forecast I would have to say cool and wet, but I hope to be proved wrong.

[Chippy Minton]

Can we have an unlike button please....

Not shooting the messenger, just not liking the message.....

[Penellype]

Can we have an unlike button please....

Not shooting the messenger, just not liking the message.....

Sorry...

I know what you mean - sometimes you want to acknowledge a message, and although you don't think its wrong you simply don't like what it says.

[Dead Dogs]

Can we have an unlike button please....

Not shooting the messenger, just not liking the message.....

As there is an unlike button, appears after using the like button. How about a don’t like instead.

I certainly don’t like this current weather.

[Chippy Minton]

Ah, yes, dislike

Snowing a good 'un here. I like snow, I really do, but not in mid-March when there's a queue to get into the greenhouse

[Thelma Sanders]

Penellype: I hope to be proved wrong

I very much hope so too

[Penellype]

Today sees the end of the "mini beast from the east". Things will gradually warm up and we should be back into double figures during the day by the 2nd half of the week. Unfortunately that comes along with likely wind and rain as the jet stream pays us a short visit.

The emphasis is on the word short. The ridge of high pressure bringing the better weather in the first part of the week will collapse over us and head south, leaving us back in a trough of lower pressure with the jet stream visiting Africa by the weekend. Quite what causes this is beyond my ability to understand, but the net result appears to be that high pressure develops over Greenland and a ridge of high pressure builds in the atlantic, and that is a recipe for turning the wind into the north. Current long term forecasts (not yet to be relied upon) consistently show a cold and potentially snowy Easter.

So, enjoy the next few days - winter may not be over yet.