Penellype's Weather Channel

[geepee]

Its hard to say as long range forecasting is always tricky. However, this high pressure is in a very similar position to the one that brought the "Beast from the East" earlier in the year, the difference being that by May the continent is warm, not freezing cold. The atmosphere does tend to get stuck into a repeating pattern at times, and it could be that this blocking high will either stay put or keep reappearing with brief more unsettled interludes.

The main question that affects us, is if this high pressure does continue over the summer, where will it be centred. This is crucial - at the moment we have the centre over Scandinavia, which is bringing in warm easterly winds. If the high drifts south the wind will turn into the south east (very warm) or south (hot) - the hot air is not very far away now in any case (France is forecast to become very hot over the bank holiday). However, if the high drifts west into the atlantic, we will be in a north westerly flow which is much cooler. Its still dry, but nowhere near a heatwave.

There is a good explanation of this in a video posted here https://www.gavsweathervids.com/ecmw...-forecasts.php yesterday - the 2 models covered show these 2 options nicely, with ECMWF going for a high to centre itself over the top of us with plenty of warm weather, while Meteo France goes for the atlantic high and a cooler summer. Remember that these models are experimental and it may be that neither scenario happens.

Your Observations and Comments have never been far from true in the time Ive been following this thread.....totally INSPIRING AND iNFORMATIVE....Long may it stay this way.
Gp

[Penellype]

Quick update for the bank holiday weekend.

A band of potentially heavy and thundery rain will move slowly north, starting in the south tomorrow and fizzling out over northern England on Friday. Unusually this does not signal a change to cooler and fresher weather, rather the reverse. Behind the rain the air will be warm and humid as very hot upper air over France moves into the south for a while over the weekend. Most places will be dry and warm with plenty of sunshine, although a rogue shower could pop up almost anywhere, most likely in the south/south west.

By Sunday it could be really quite hot in the south with 30C a possibility, and very warm elsewhere. Things will cool down a little on Monday with the wind swinging from south east to east. This could draw in more cloud on the eastern side of the country.

So, another very warm and sunny bank holiday looks to be on the cards. Most unusual to have 2 in a row!

[Greenleaves]

Thanks Penellype

[1Bee]

Thanks Pene! Super news for my camping trip with the boys....

But after the weekend, we really need rain! It's so unusually dry up here.

[Penellype]

After tomorrow most of the rain looks likely to be in the south in the form of showers or thunderstorms, but there may be some from time to time further north.

The pattern at the moment is an odd one with high pressure to the north and east but also to the west, and a strange little low to the south west which is the cause of the showers. Where this low ends up will determine who gets any rain - the ECMWF has it staying pretty much where it is, the GFS moves it slowly north so that it sits to the west of Scotland by day 10 (Sun 3rd June).

[Penellype]

Hmm, there was somewhat more rain today than anticipated, as massive thunderstorms blew up in the midlands. This afternoon the met office issued an amber warning of rain for the area between Birmingham and north Wales as 58.6 mm of rain were recorded at Winterbourne in just one hour.

Sorry if I misled anyone into thinking it would be mostly dry. Thunderstorms were predicted for this weekend, especially in the south, but I was not expecting anything quite like that!

There looks to be a risk of more storms in the south and possibly east anglia tomorrow, with the risk transferring to just the far south west on Tuesday. The air to the south is very unstable and further flash flooding in places has to be a possibility.

[Potstubsdustbins]

Yesterday just 40 miles away as the crow fly's Birmingham was inundated and a man died whilst here in Nottingham a really nice sunny day.

Today went to the club for an ox roast sat roasting in the sun supping good beer with friends whilst the son has just sent me pictures of them sun bathing on Blackpool sands Devon.

This countries weather must be something else....................

[Penellype]

The models really are NOT forecasting this very well. More storms looked very likely today, but there was very little rain about, with just one storm over London this evening. There was a storm earlier in the day over Brighton.

Tomorrow is a puzzle. Looking at the forecast CAPE and lifted (an indication of the amount of energy in the atmosphere available and therefore a measure of the risk of storms etc), this looks much less for tomorrow than today, and vastly less than yesterday. However, the Met Office have issued a yellow warning for the south of England for tonight and tomorrow, for thundery rain, torrential rain, flash flooding and hail and gusty winds possible - see https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings.

CAPE for today:



Brighter colours = more energy = more likely thunderstorms.

CAPE for tomorrow:



I'm confused.

[Nicos]

Oh yipppeee...we have the big red patch here tomorrow
Actually I think it may already be here....boom/flash....sploshy splosh

[Jimmy]

We need rain in Preston. A deluge from a thunder storm might be nice, perhaps.
However in the past they have machine gunned my plants with hail.

Also worried about weather reverting to normal as end of May can be very cold damp and windy.
Fingers crossed
Jimmy

[Penellype]

Friday/Saturday is looking a possibility for some rain in the north west, although I'm not sure if this is from thunderstorms (which would be hit and miss) or a more general area of rain. Looking a bit more unsettled at the longer range end of the forecast, but that comes with big uncertainties. It looks like remaining generally on the warm side of average well into June, although things can always change.

[chillithyme]

it's still thunder and lightening down south, I like the rain, but it also means I had to leg it and get out of the allotment, i thought I'd brave the rain, but when the thunder and lightening returned I thought maybe not

[Penellype]

it's still thunder and lightening down south, I like the rain, but it also means I had to leg it and get out of the allotment, i thought I'd brave the rain, but when the thunder and lightening returned I thought maybe not

Very wise - I wouldn't want to be caught out in a thunderstorm at the allotment, particularly not if I was using metal tools

[chillithyme]

I promptly chucked my tools in the shed, and left, you'd be surprised though, there were still other plot holders about who have been there for years when I left, they do have proper sheds, but even if a had a decent shed I still wouldn't stick around, eeeeks

[Penellype]

To be fair a shed should be fine. You want to avoid being the tallest object around, or holding anything metal, which is a good conductor. The best protection is a metal (Faraday) cage - I remember being in an indoor riding school, basically made of cladding on iron girders when it was struck by lightning. It made one heck of a bang, and scared the living daylights out of me and the other riders (and the horses), but we were fine.