Penellype's Weather Channel

[chillithyme]

sounds scary
I was next to a very tall tree, plus I had fork in my hand, so not the best combo, and my boundary on 3 sides is metal, glad I'm not there now

[Nicos]

Oh Pen...that so much reminds me of a riding lesson I had just before my stage 2 BHSAI exam.
Outdoor arena....series of about 8 jumps, no reins, no stirrups....
Suddenly a thunderstorm....claps directly above us half way through the series of jumps.
Suddenly there I was, mid air, perfect jumping position...no horse!....he'd bogged off sideways and left me to it!

Ouchy ouch....

Strangely my thoughts reverted back to Thelwell cartoons

[Jimmy]

Carbon fiber fishing poles and golf clubs are other dangerous items in a storm !
But then if you go on a pointless walk around a green chasing a ball ....
Jimmy

[1Bee]

Gorgeous weather for camping. Best I've ever had. The tent usually has to be dried at home, which is a bit tricky as the house is old and damp. This time, when I brought the tent home, I actually REDUCED the moisture content of the house slightly...

But we're now dry as a bone up here. Proper water-before-weeding weather.

I used to do conservation volunteering, and was once doing some fencing work up on a limestone escarpment. Back then, this involved using long handled shovels and 5 foot crow bars to open up holes in the ground to put the fence posts in. My friend and I suddenly realised a thunderstorm had blown up without us noticing. We stared at each other for a second, both of us holding 5 foot steel bars, then dropped them then and there and legged it for the van...

[Penellype]

Yellow and amber warnings of rain have been issued for today, tomorrow and Saturday for much of the UK as thunderstorms are forecast to continue. Check your area https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings
Rain radar https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

[robbra]

Down here we keep getting threats of biblical storms and flooding but so far apart from a rainless thunderstorm last weekend and a bit last night there is nothing unusual. On the way into Weymouth this afternoon a sign read "Weather warning 4pm" I was there and nothing but a few clouds and back home it's a nice bright evening.
I do appreciate it is not like this everywhere but it happens so often here nobody trusts the forecast as they get it wrong too often.
Rob

[chillithyme]

we were forecast thunderstorms too today, but none arrived, unlike the day before last when I got caught out at the allotment. Turns out one of my allotment neighbours got stuck there waiting for 2 hours in a break in the rain, and another continued working though he was a bit scared under his metal covering

[Thelma Sanders]

Down here we keep getting threats of biblical storms and flooding but so far apart from a rainless thunderstorm last weekend and a bit last night there is nothing unusual. On the way into Weymouth this afternoon a sign read "Weather warning 4pm" I was there and nothing but a few clouds and back home it's a nice bright evening.
I do appreciate it is not like this everywhere but it happens so often here nobody trusts the forecast as they get it wrong too often.
Rob

Unfortunately it is very difficult to predict exactly where a shower or thunderstorm will occur. I think you are better off looking at the weather radar to see if anything is coming in your direction, for the next couple of hours.

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

zoom in on your postcode and turn animation on

[Penellype]

Thunderstorms (and showers) are easy to predict in a general area, but almost impossible to nail to a specific location. Weather apps are almost useless for this. The reason is that the clouds form from bubbles of hot air rising and predicting exactly where this will happen is impossible. A good analogy is a pan of hot water. As the heat increases you know that bubbles of gas will form on the bottom and rise to the surface at various points in the pan. But beforehand, if asked to place a black dot on the bottom of the pan, there would be no guarantee that a bubble would form on your dot. It might, but that is all you can say.

As Thelma says, the radar is the best guide, but be aware that in very unstable conditions thunder clouds can bubble up out of nowhere in a matter of a few minutes, especially if the sun is out.

[Mistlepie]

Rain! It's finally here!

And then I realised how much starting to grow things has seeped into my soul, because I've never before in my life greeted a rainy day off with pleasure.

[Penellype]

Really strange behaviour from slow moving rain/showers here. York was right on the southern edge of some heavy rain this evening. The rain started to show on the radar as heavy showers along the coast. These gradually moved inland and appeared to be moving slowly north west. Mid evening they ground to a halt, then the whole lot turned round and drifted back south eastwards, which is what is still happening now.

Even the radar can't predict what these showers are doing until after they have done it!

[Ananke]

Finally some rain here today too. I dug holes yesterday to put manure and compost bin stuff in for the squashes and don't think I've ever seen the soil so dry so deep in all the years I've been growing.

[Chippy Minton]

My Good Lady Wife was out walking t'dog this fine evening. She met the caretaker from the school she works at and he said "next 3 weeks are going be 30C!". (as we live near Stoke there's no "to", used....). That would be more than a rarity for Cheshire ! Given we've missed all the rain showers so far the garden is like a dust bowl.

Penellype what are your thoughts on what the charts are showing?

[Penellype]

Finally some rain here today too. I dug holes yesterday to put manure and compost bin stuff in for the squashes and don't think I've ever seen the soil so dry so deep in all the years I've been growing.

That does look incredibly dry. The further north you are the less rain you will have had as the high pressure has generally been centred to the north. Any rain that has appeared in Scotland has been in the form of showers or storms, which are very ht and miss. It looks like there should be some rain in the Glasgow area today and possibly tomorrow, but how much is not clear.

[Penellype]

My Good Lady Wife was out walking t'dog this fine evening. She met the caretaker from the school she works at and he said "next 3 weeks are going be 30C!". (as we live near Stoke there's no "to", used....). That would be more than a rarity for Cheshire ! Given we've missed all the rain showers so far the garden is like a dust bowl.

Penellype what are your thoughts on what the charts are showing?

It seems likely that someone has been reading one of those tabloid newspapers. From what the charts are showing, no, not 30C for the next 3 weeks.

At the moment it looks likely that most places will have a dry couple of days at the start of next week, with a cooler and fresher feel and a lower risk of showers, Temperatures are likely to be in the high teens to low 20s as the flow has a northerly component, but it won't be cold as the upper air is warm.

Interpreting the charts beyond that is difficult as we are basically in a "col" which is an area between high and low pressure systems where there is little wind. Almost any weather is possible in a col depending on other factors, so the best I can do is go along with the interpretations of those who are more experienced than I am and the forecast precipitation and temperature charts. From these it looks likely to get warmer again towards the end of the week with the risk of storms returning.

The models and forecasts I have seen for June have consistently gone for a warm and dry first week followed by a deterioration in mid June which may or may not last - some forecasts predict that the high pressure will return towards the end of the month, others do not. The short term models have brought this breakdown forward in the last 24 hours from around 13th June to around 9th. This would mean cooler and more changeable weather with some "proper" rain, not just showers.

So, in summary, I would be extremely surprised if we have 3 weeks of 30C. I'd be quite surprised if we have 3 days of 30C!