Penellype's Weather Channel

[Jimmy]

In Preston the air temp dropped to 5 around 4:30 am this morning.
Outdoor toms and cucs won't be happy !
Jimmy

[1Bee]

We had a 7 at some point since I last posted. Everything seems happy enough, though.

[Penellype]

The good thing about chilly nights at this time of year is that they only go cold for an hour or so, unlike at other times when there can be several hours of cold before the sun warms things up. Could be another chilly night tonight and tomorrow night in the north and west, otherwise its warming up all the time now.

[geepee]

The good thing about chilly nights at this time of year is that they only go cold for an hour or so, unlike at other times when there can be several hours of cold before the sun warms things up. Could be another chilly night tonight and tomorrow night in the north and west, otherwise its warming up all the time now.

What welcome news you broadcast in your closing sentence.
Gp

[Penellype]

All is proceeding as expected, with temperatures now rising across almost the whole country. The far north west of Scotland has more cloud and is therefore cooler, but most places have unbroken sunshine with high pressure centred over the UK. This is a classic example of an omega block , so named because of the resemblance of the shape of the high to the Greek letter omega:



This sort of pattern is very hard to shift, hence the forecast for an extended period of warm or hot, dry weather. Things will vary slightly over the next week as the centre of the high drifts slightly. It is expected to move slightly north and east, turning the wind into the south east or east, which is hot at this time of year and hence the forecast for increasing temperatures through the week.

However by the time we get to the weekend the high is forecast to split into 2 parts, to the east and west of us:



This brings slightly cooler air in and a slight possibility of showers associated with a weak cold front. Be aware that nights could turn chilly at the weekend - we currently have a forecast of 6 early on Saturday morning. Worth keeping an eye on for now.

This doesn't necessarily mean that the warm/hot weather will end at the weekend. Current forecasts have the high building again over the UK so more hot weather could be arriving next week. As for rain, there isn't much on view in the current forecasts:



Now for something completely different. By now most people will be aware that I'm interested in most things scientific, especially if connected to weather or gardening. At this time of year the sun is never very far below the horizon, and on clear nights that leads to the possibility of seeing noctilucent clouds to the north if the sky is clear. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noctilucent_cloud

I have never managed to see these before, York seeming to be about the most frustrating place on the planet when it comes to night time cloud cover. People have been posting fabulous pictures of them on Twitter for the past few days. So last night, when I happened to wake up at 2am I thought I would go and have a look, and there they were. I tried to take a photo (once I had worked out how to turn off the flash on my phone camera) but it doesn't do them justice at all, and when I tried to post it on here, all you can see is black with a faint pink smudge



Anyway, if you find yourself awake when its dark during the next month or so, and the sky is clear, it is worth going out and having a look to the north as they really are very pretty.

[Martin H]

I enjoyed Metcheck's headline this morning:

"High Pressure Moves 15ft East".



https://www.metcheck.com/

[Penellype]

Suddenly July is looking a bit wetter than it was:



This is too far off or any certainty, but this is quite a change on what the models have been showing up to yesterday. This morning's GFS run is producing a proper change to a cooler, wetter more westerly regime around the beginning of July, just in time for Wimbledon.

[1Bee]

I... need... rain....

Went on an open garden village thingy last weekend - several of the gardens which had becks merrily gurgling through them this time last year had dry gulches instead....

[bikermike]

I... need... rain....

Phrases you don't hear from a Cumbrian very often...

but yeah, rain would be good. Luckily for us dahn sarf, the depth of clay means there is moisture down there, but the longer it is until it rains, the more it just runs off. I think we've got about 3mm of rain due next week (maybe) on Metcheck…

[Lumpy]

Thank you Pen.
I was hoping for rain...............lots and lots of glorious wet stuff as I'm fed up acting like one of Snow Whites dwarves and lugging watering cans all over the place.
My fault I suppose as I refused to pay the plummer £160 for an out side tap where the fittings under the sink and the hole in the wall are already there!

[Penellype]

From the charts the rain could start as early as this weekend, as a low pressure moves up from Biscay. this would almost certainly be in the form of thunderstorms, so not everyone would get one. Weather apps really really struggle with thunderstorms, so looking at the radar and the sky will be of more use than weather apps if the models are right.

[Ms-T]

Please Rain come to kent...please

[Penellype]

Please Rain come to kent...please

I know how you feel! GFS model is still showing the possibility of storms for the south on Sunday evening:



Bear in mind that this is not a solid band of rain, it would be hit and miss, and Sunday is still far enough away for everything to change, but some sort of a thundery breakdown early next week is looking quite likely.

[bikermike]

Metcheck suggests continuous rain for North London on Monday and Wednesday. Not vast amounts, but would be nice if it does...

[Penellype]

Metcheck suggests continuous rain for North London on Monday and Wednesday. Not vast amounts, but would be nice if it does...

Looks like thunderstorms on Monday - weather apps are incredibly bad at depicting these and tend to show rain when there is a chance of a storm/shower. IF the GFS is right about the breakdown next week, then Wednesday could be more generally wet, but exactly where is impossible to say at this point.