Penellype's Weather Channel

[lottie dolly]

Had a text message from 7trent about the use of water,said they are pumping an extra 300million litres of water into supply every day,no bans as yet,just a request to use less.

[Penellype]

Had a text message from 7trent about the use of water,said they are pumping an extra 300million litres of water into supply every day,no bans as yet,just a request to use less.

I think it is very likely that more areas will get this sort of thing, and possibly hosepipe bans. Although spring was wet, it came after a dry autumn, and parts of the south east in particular were probably low on water before this dry spell started.

[1Bee]

I am now hosed.

So next it will either be rain or a hosepipe ban...

[Chippy Minton]

I am now hosed.

So next it will either be rain or a hosepipe ban...

Or both! (with some extra characters to make the minimum 10)....

[FuzzyFeltDeath]

It's noticeably weaker water pressure in the evening here in Shropshire, but the minimal veg and fruit garden takes an hours minimum each day to water. What I did learn is that due to us having very heavy clay soil, the hedges and the fruit trees are fine as the top dry layer protects the deeper moist soil for far longer than less clay heavy soil. We've not watered the 4yr old hedge at all and it's growing well with no signs of needing extra water. The slight negative is when rain does arrive it can't penetrate the baked hard clay solid, so we'd need a long period of lighter rain over a heavy downpour.

Looking at the reservoir levels, their looking very healthy, 1.3% of capacity used from the 11th to the 18th of June across the Severn Treat board. The very heavy Spring rain meant capacity was full to the brim starting this lengthy period of warm, dry weather. No outlook for a hosepipe ban for a long time here, the issue Sever Trent have is not having the pipework size for demand, not quantity of water.

[robbra]

Down here it's chalky or sandy. In sandy Puddletown forest many silver birch are dying all over, some many years old, the place is awash with bracken and it takes over any piece of clear earth. There was a fire a few weeks ago and now covered with the weed and it seems nothing can kill it off, fire or drought. My chalky/sandy earth is parched, oh for the promised(only just) thunderstorms later.
Rob

[Thelma Sanders]

parts of the south east in particular were probably low on water before this dry spell started.

The heavy spring rain meant there was enough in the rivers to refill the SE's reservoirs, the 3 largest are, 91%, 95% and 94% full, and Thanet's groundwater (Aquifer ) level is 74M level, so no problems here for the moment. Fingers firmly crossed, though.

It's parts of the south, that are getting very low on groundwater, inc. the isle of Wight which has reached its 'impending drought level' trigger, so assume they have a hosepipe ban in place already

[Penellype]

Plenty of showers moving into Cornwall and Devon now. These are likely to spread to parts of Wales through the day. Not much elsewhere I'm afraid, except for the far north west of Scotland.

[robbra]

Yep, cloudy in west Dorset but able to sit out without sweating like the proverbial. Would have liked some rain though.

[Penellype]

Today's 3 GFS runs have all suggested more widespread showers/storms on Thursday, although no end to the heat. Fingers crossed for some rain!

[robbra]

We got some around six, not heavy but lasted about an hour and an extra inch in the water butt. So much for using bath water but there will be other baths.

[sandspider]

Can you give me an idea when the Chepstow area might get a bit of rain, Pen?! We were supposed to get some yesterday, possibly in thunderstorm form, but nothing. I looked at two or three different forecasts and they kept disagreeing and changing!
Thank you for your efforts here, it's interesting reading.

[sandspider]

Oh, and none of the forecasts I use show much or any rain in the next fortnight

[Penellype]

Can you give me an idea when the Chepstow area might get a bit of rain, Pen?! We were supposed to get some yesterday, possibly in thunderstorm form, but nothing. I looked at two or three different forecasts and they kept disagreeing and changing!
Thank you for your efforts here, it's interesting reading.

There are 2 types of weather that are incredibly hard to forecast with any precision - snow (because its incredibly sensitive to small variations in temperature) and showers/thunderstorms because they can be very localized. I have known a shower to produce rain in the front garden but none in the back.

The forecast models don't handle either of these weather types very well and you get huge variations between the models in the predicted locations of showers. Weather apps use the raw data from the models with no interpretation at all from a human forecaster. Therefore if your app uses the GFS and the GFS has put a blob of rain indicating a shower over your location, the app will say rain, when in fact its really only the possibility of a shower somewhere in the area. Other models may show no rain at all in the area that day so other apps which use these models will show a dry day.

Currently what we have is high pressure slap over the country, which is why most places have been very dry. Yesterday the south west had thunderstorms triggered by the presence of a low to the south west - this is still there but moving away, so there may be more showers in these areas, but probably less so than yesterday.

Over the next couple of days pressure will lower very slightly over the whole country, so that instead of being in the centre of the high, we will be in what's called a col. This is the situation on Thursday shown by the Met Office Fax chart:



Looking at this you might think that there are lots of lows about and a cold front and therefore lots of rain. However, what isn't immediately obvious is the 1020 mb ridge of high pressure to the west, because there is a 1019mb area right next to it which is labelled L (very misleading). We are in fact still under the influence of a lot of high pressure, it is just having a slight wobble.

The implications of the wobble and the cold front are that showers might break out in places mid week, with Thursday looking the most likely for the most widespread risk. The cold front is forecast to die out and the high to build again so by Friday we are back to high pressure, hot and dry.

All I can say with regard to Chepstow is that you might get a shower around Thursday. It isn't possible to be any more definite than that in the current setup. The current run of the GFS is hopeful:



But remember, this is only one model run and these are showers, not a large area of rain as depicted on the map. Not everywhere in the area shown will get one, even if the model has got the area correct.

By the way you can tell these are convective showers (caused by rising hot air) because there is no forecast rain at all over the sea. If this was a continuous band of rain it wouldn't matter if it was land or sea, but the sea is relatively cold and the land is hot, so convection only occurs over the land.

[1Bee]

There are people losing their entire crop of potatoes on the allotments - they're falling over because of lack of water (the clay, winter-waterlogged soil is now bone dry a long way down) and they haven't started forming spuds because they went in so late because of the cold weather. Mine are doing fine because I planted them early under fleece, and have been giving them a weekly soak for the last three weeks or so. I'm halfway through harvesting the charlottes, and the calendar says the sarpos will be ready end of July. They're nearly shoulder high in places, phenomenal plants.

I'm now the second plot holder to be using a hose. We both agree if we get told off, we'll just say sorry and stop, but while there's not an actual hose pipe ban we're hoping the exceptional circumstances will mean no-one minds too much. We just don't want to lose a whole season of crops...

I'm topping up the bird bath/drinking station at home twice daily. The village kids are turning amphibious, virtually living in the river after school. Let's hope that doesn't dry up!