Penellype's Weather Channel

[Mistlepie]

Thank you so much, that's extremely interesting. I learnt loads from it. I knew our prevailing weather is from the south west, but I had no idea that's a global thing related to the rotation of the earth.

Thank you!

[Penellype]

Yellow warning of thunderstorms tomorrow for southern and western parts of England and much of Wales: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/...ate=2018-07-13.

As always with storms and showers, not everyone will get one. Yesterday evening I could see a shower cloud which appeared from the radar to be producing heavy rain between here and Harrogate, less than 20 miles away, but we didn't get a single drop here.

[Jay-ell]

Imagines Pen hunched over radar screen

PING
"storm clouds gathering"
PING
"Heading North East"
PING
"and my Microwave meal is ready

[Jimmy]

It rained over night in Preston.
Not a lot but sufficient to dampen ground and keep plants happy.
Hoping for a thunderstorm deluge.
Must have a word with my mate Thor!
Jimmy

[Penellype]

Models are still struggling with the after-effects of ex-hurricane Chris. This has been absorbed into a low pressure system currently to the south of Iceland which has given parts pf Scotland and Ireland some showers today. The remainder of the UK has been hot today as warm air is sucked up from the south ahead of the low. This will continue tomorrow as the low makes only slow progress towards us.



By Monday a cold front is likely to move down from the north west bringing a change of air mass and cooler weather. There will be some rain on this and possibly thunderstorms, but it may become very broken by the time it reaches the south east. However the jet stream remains rather weak. Although we are technically under a trough of lower pressure by mid weak, the lows are very shallow and will be meandering aimlessly about rather than moving through quickly on the jet stream. Predicting the exact position of these lows and associated showers or bands of rain is difficult and therefore forecasts for the 2nd half of next week are changing, sometimes quite dramatically, from run to run of the models. Expect the weather to be changeable, and cooler (but only down to around average for the time of year) but don't rely on the forecasts being correct until quite near the time.

At the moment the high pressure seems likely to build again, possibly by next weekend or during the following week. It could also get hot again, but all this is very uncertain at present. This, from the latest ECMWF run, is very warm indeed by day 10:

[unclefudgly]

45 days without rain in SW4.

[Penellype]

45 days without rain in SW4.

Ouch - our last proper rain was on 16th June, and we are very dry.

[Chippy Minton]

Today is St Swithin's Day (or Swithun if you're that way inclined), that highly scientific measure of the future (or at least 40 days) of weather in the UK. For the first time ever we're channelling for rain! Come on rain.......

[Penellype]

The Met Office say that there is no period of continuous rain for 40 days since records began. I'm not sure if this includes periods of 40 days where there is some recorded rainfall each day or not.

There are instances of 40 days with no rain in specific locations. While I think the use of 40 days here is similar to the 40 days and 40 nights often mentioned in the Bible, which effectively means "a long time", my take on this is that if there is any truth in it at all, it is talking about an overall weather pattern. If it is wet on St Swithins day you are likely to be in an unsettled pattern and the weather will probably continue to be generally unsettled (although by no means continuously wet) until something kicks it out of that pattern, and the similarly for dry weather.

Just at the moment, as previously mentioned, we are being influenced by an ex-hurricane, and that is exactly the sort of thing that causes a change. However, while a change is going to happen in the short term, indications are that it may only be temporary. We will see.

[1Bee]

I honestly think our last significant rain around here was in May. We did have a little last night, but only a couple of mm.

It's definitely cooler and changeable, though! Enjoying the respite.

[Penellype]

So, Chris has brought its cold front, which as expected is starting to break up and resulting in only showery rain at most by the time it reaches the south east. It is bringing a few days of cooler and fresher weather, but disappointingly little rain. There may be some thunderstorms in parts of the midlands and north east England later this evening, which will move away over night, but as always with these, not everywhere will get one.

The models are now backing off the weak areas of low pressure later this week and wanting to build the high in more strongly and earlier. This means that particularly for the south and east the chances of rain have diminished. There may still be some showery rain around but there is not likely to be anything significant except perhaps for the north west on Friday. As expected, the high is simply too strong, and I think we will need to wait for another ex-hurricane to come our way to properly shift this pattern now. Expect more dry and warm weather, becoming hot again by next week, possibly earlier.

Sorry

[Penellype]

A few heavy showers bubbling up over Yorkshire now, including one over me



The rain started just as I was emptying the last back garden can of water over the potatoes.

[1Bee]

We've had some rain! Not a good soak, but more than a sprinkle, and certainly enough for a day off from watering. Enjoying the breather.

[Penellype]

Unexpectedly cool night last night - the models were forecasting low double figures here, but we reached 6.5 and some places were rather lower than that. Cool air mass + clear sky + no wind can be surprisingly chilly at night, even in the middle of summer!

[Penellype]

Yellow warning of thunderstorms for the south east on Friday afternoon https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/...ate=2018-07-20.


This is NOT a promise of rain, merely a notification that there is a chance of heavy showers and storms in the area. Not everyone will get one.