Penellype's Weather Channel

[Penellype]

The weather is about to become much more active with a very windy 2nd half of the week, particularly in the south at first, but generally from Friday to Sunday as low pressure systems move in. Bands of rain will cross the country as well, heaviest in the north and west. There are yellow warnings for wind covering much of the UK and one for rain in parts of Scotland https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings.

As the low moves away on Saturday the wind will turn into the north and it will become much colder. There is the potential for some wintery showers over the weekend. High pressure then builds from the south, bringing drier weather. As always, the effect of this on the temperature will depend on the position of the high. If it is centred to the east it will bring mild south westerly winds, if over the top of us we are likely to have frost and fog, if to the west it will remain cold. Models can't make up their minds exactly where this high pressure goes, although the consensus appears to favour mild weather for the middle of February. We shall see.

[Penellype]

Well, the high pressure settled to the east of us and as a result the temperature now feels more like April than February. There will be a slightly cooler few days from tomorrow with a little rain, mostly in the north west before the high builds again in much the same place later in the week. Newspaper headlines forecasting snow look miles wide of the mark as the setup favoured by all of the models looks more favourable for temperatures in the high teens next weekend. It is possible that the February record of 19.7 degrees might be broken if conditions pan out correctly. A gradual return to more normal values by the end of the month looks likely but this is too far out to be sure at the moment.

This winter has been notably dry and following on from a hot dry summer, we could really do with some rain to fill the reservoirs and aquifers. There isn't any sign of substantial rain in the short term.

Given that most of the winter forecasts were for a cold and somewhat wet winter, with particular emphasis on a cold February, once again the one that overall appears to be most correct is David King's, which makes interesting reading with hindsight http://www.weatherwithouttechnology....ary%202019.pdf. His spring forecast has just appeared on his website http://www.weatherwithouttechnology....rch_to_May.pdf.

While I would not recommend planning from this on a day by day basis, as it is sometimes wrong (or out by a few days), I continue to find it more than a little interesting.

[Chippy Minton]

This winter has been notably dry and following on from a hot dry summer, we could really do with some rain to fill the reservoirs and aquifers. There isn't any sign of substantial rain in the short term.

Does seem very early in the year to be having moorland fires!

[Penellype]

I looked up the average January rainfall for the York area and its 80-100mm. The local weather station here recorded just 27mm for the whole of January. We did have a bit at the beginning of February, but nowhere near enough to make up the shortfall.

[Penellype]

Some dense fog patches around this morning, with yellow warnings issued by the Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2019-02-24. The fog should clear to give a warm and mainly sunny day.

Unlike yesterday when a weak front brought some cloud and rain to some western areas, the next few days should be dry pretty much throughout the UK, after any fog clears. The north west of Scotland may see some light rain from time to time. The winter (yes it is still winter for a few more days) heatwave continues with the warmest temperatures possible tomorrow and Tuesday. The February record in Scotland has already been passed a couple of days ago and if conditions work out just right it is possible that the UK February record of 19.7C may follow. It will not be the warmest February on record because of the cooler first half of the month.

The chart for mid day tomorrow tells the story, with a large area of high pressure centred over and to the east of us, dragging the air up from north Africa and southern Europe. The isobars are wide apart, hence the tendency to form fog, particularly over England.



Later in the week the high begins to weaken and slip slowly south and low pressure starts to break through. This results in lower temperatures (more normal for the time of year) and more unsettled weather as is clearly seen from the ensemble chart for York:



It is worth noting that the breakdown of the high has been moved a day or 2 later in the past couple of days, and it is still in the unreliable timeframe. Models have a tendency to try to revert to normal, which is high to the south and lows passing over or to the north of us at this time of year with westerly winds. Therefore it is possible that the dry conditions may continue for longer than this, although a reduction in temperatures is very likely. Where we go from there is very uncertain, but although there are a few lines dipping down to -10 on the ensemble chart, these look to be brief northerly winds as lows move away, and there is no sign (on this chart) of any prolonged cold in the first part of March. It will feel a lot colder than it does now though!

(Note - since I last posted one of these charts the vertical temperature scale has been changed and therefore the high and low points look more extreme. The new scale does enable you to see more clearly that the red average line for the time of year is going up, as you would expect in March.)

[Penellype]

So with Wales having broken its February maximum temperature record over the weekend, today was England's turn with 19.9C at Northolt in greater London. However, Wales takes the prize again today with a stunning 20.3C at Trawsgoed in south Wales. This is the first time 20C has been recorded in the UK in winter.

More of the same is possible tomorrow.

[Gillykat]

Hard to believe it's February!!! I was actually lathered and grumbling at the heat today as I moved piles of rubbish on the allotment

Looking back at 25th February 2018 here in Alnwick it was a mere 4c and the Beast from the East arrived just 48hrs later on 27th!

I'm enjoying it whilst it lasts and getting what I can done.....I think I might be on holiday next week so no doubt it'll rain (or snow hahaha) then!

[Chippy Minton]

Set off for work this morning, registered 3C on the car. Chap came into the office later (11ish) and said he'd registered 17C on the way back from Barnsley. Up at the allotment yesterday saw my first bitey insect, in FEBRUARY! Strange weather indeed.

[Penellype]

Very strange weather indeed - my garden had loads of ladybirds at the moment. Normality looks increasingly likely to return at the end of the week, so enjoy this while you can.

[Gillykat]

...my garden had loads of ladybirds at the moment.

Mine too! In the four years I've had Plot 34 there's only been the occasional ladybird but last summer I noticed a few more and this past week they're all over the place! They hibernate in groups so I think this weather has woken them up. My not doing much on the plot and it getting quite weedy (aka a bloomin' mess!) helped create lots of perfect habitat too.

Poor aphids if all these ladybird hang around

[Penellype]

I'm more than happy for the ladybirds to eat all of the cabbage aphids that made my brokali and calabrese inedible last year.

Update on the record temperatures - Traswsgoed eventually reached 20.6C and this is the official new UK February record. It may not last long! De Bilt in Holland also recorded their highest February temperature on record - somewhere on the 17s (its cooler on the continent at this time of year) and Scotland managed the highest February overnight minimum on record on Friday. The Met Office tweeted: Following another day of maximum #temperature records here in the UK, we are now able to confirm that on Saturday morning Achnagart in Scotland recorded the UK's highest daily minimum temperature for February, with 13.9 °C. The previous record stood at 13.7 °C in Aboyne 13.2.1998.

Nearly 14 degrees over night, in February!

Someone else I follow, who is doing a PhD in meteorology and is studying the way the atmosphere works, tweeted that one of the astonishing things about this heatwave is not the temperatures, its where the air is coming from. I do not understand the science behind what he says, but basically although the wind is southerly, and therefore implies (as many sources have said) that it comes from Africa, apparently when you trace back the origin of the air it is from the Azores, west of Portugal and some way north of Africa. For anyone interested, his tweets and diagrams of what is happening are here: https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/statu...28981238591489.

It is looking increasingly certain that the warm and dry weather will disappear as spring begins at the end of this week and we will move into a more unsettled, wet and windy spell. Nothing particularly cold showing up, but much cooler than it is now.

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen!
Even more of an incentive to try and get as much gardening done as poss rather than anything else!
( we didn't get around to doing the Autumn clear up...so this warm weather is a blessing for us)

Interestingly I was pretty sure the warmth was coming from Africa as all the cars around here are covered with dust...how strange!

[Nicos]

Forgot to check our max temp today , but it's 18C at the moment and it's cooled down a lot
UV 3 today...that's quite high for this time of the year at around sealevel isn't it Pen??

[Penellype]

Hmm, interesting that the cars are covered in dust. Maybe the air is making a round trip from Africa via the Azores...

As seemed likely the record has toppled again today - currently the highest temperature I have seen for today is 21.2C at Kew Gardens. That's just bonkers for February.

I'm not sure that UV levels have anything to do with temperature (although obviously it is warmer if the sun is out). I'm not particularly up on UV levels at a given time of year, but the sun is getting higher in the sky every day and as it does so the UV levels will rise.

[purplekat]

There is talk of a saharan dust cloud at the moment, along with high air pollution for today https://www.manchestereveningnews.co...ution-15890218