Penellype's Weather Channel

[Greenleaves]

I'm waiting for weather warnings about warmth

[Jimmy]

Gardening, phewe no chance. Sat in front of the box with a beer and a small one + nice film.
Curry for tea.
Any one joining me ?
Jimmy

[Penellype]

Some really horrible wet weather in the north and west today with loads of flooding, and snow in parts of Scotland. Reservoirs (away from the south east) are now full and overflowing, so at least we are no longer heading for a serious drought. (This is, incidentally, a fail for David King's methodology, which predicted a continuation of February's warm, dry and calm weather for the first half of March).

Tomorrow will be windy and showery, with some of the showers heavy with hail and thunder possible. Snow is also possible in the north and it will be chilly everywhere. After tomorrow things are due to quieten down and it will gradually become milder so that may places will be seeing temperatures in the mid teens by mid week. The far north and west will still be showery and there could be quite a bit of cloud at times, but the persistent and heavy rain will disappear. High pressure looks likely to hang around (with a possible blip next weekend) for much of the remainder of March. Frosty nights cannot be ruled out if skies are clear.

[Penellype]

Here is a welcome sight:



Becoming warmer and much drier - some sensible weather at last . I'm not sure what the yellow line (P11) is doing messing around at -10, hopefully that is a mistake, otherwise winter may yet return!

[Gillykat]

Calmer, warmer weather -that'll do me lovely! Finally got my week off starting today so today, as it's showery in Alnwick, I'm catching up on housework before taking the car in for her MOT at 3.30pm. Then from tomorrow it's allotment time! Seed sowing, beds dug etc. I may even, by the end of this week, have some semblance of having caught up!

[Gillykat]

*sigh* MOT was cancelled.....guy who does it broke his collarbone over the weekend So Neil has rescheduled it for tomorrow at 3pm at the other garage. I'll just have to do my planned allotment jobs in the morning instead of getting up and having a leisurely breakfast and heading up around midday

[Penellype]

A couple of quite chilly nights coming up with the possibility of ground frost or air frost in vulnerable areas tonight and tomorrow where skies clear. High pressure will build again through next week bringing more dry and increasingly warm weather - this time the high looks more likely to be sunny rather than the rather dull and occasionally drizzly weather some places had this week. The far north and west will always be vulnerable to more in the way of showers.

By Friday some rain is likely to be moving into northern Scotland as a cold front moves down through the country over the weekend, so it will become cooler, very similar to what has happened this weekend. After that the high may build again, although there is some uncertainty as to whether low pressure will take over for a while at the start of April.

[Penellype]

Just a reminder that it is still March! The daytime weather will be increasingly warm this week, but nights could still be cold, and there is increasing support for quite a cold snap at the weekend:



Several of the lines are down to -10 which would result in quite severe overnight frost for at least the northern half of the country. Be prepared to protect any vulnerable plants.

[sandspider]

Do you have any idea when we might get rain again, Pen? None showing on any forecast I can find...

I've planted a few more small trees, which guarantees no rain for anyone!

[Penellype]

It really depends which model you look at. The GFS model wants to bring some really cold air down from the north after next weekend, but pressure remains relatively high. Scotland will have more in the way of rain or showers, but there may be some showery rain or snow for the rest of the UK, probably mainly on north facing coasts. The ECMWF model also brings a cold front down over the weekend, but the air is less cold than the GFS is predicting and the outcome is more unsettled and westerly, which would bring more in the way of rain particularly to the western side of the country.

Bear in mind that next week is not in the reliable timeframe, and forecasts can change significantly. There is no sign of any significant rain outside of Scotland before the end of March. It also looks very likely that there will be a substantial drop in temperature at the start of April. Beyond that is open to question, but there is a possibility of some quite cold weather which may last several days, and/or a change to more unsettled conditions, but when and how unsettled is impossible to predict at this stage.

Most weather apps are probably using the GFS model, in which case they will be showing mostly dry for at least the next 10 days on the current run.

[sandspider]

Thank you. Better order some more heating oil!

[Gillykat]

The BBC 5-Day forecast for Alnwick is showing showery weather next week 2nd - 6th (Tuesday to Saturday) but as we all know they could change their mind by tomorrow

[Penellype]

Becoming colder and more unsettled for the start of April as low pressure moves in. Many places will be at risk of night frosts most nights this week and northern areas may see some snow, particularly but not exclusively on high ground. As always snow is hard to pin down, but the heavier the showers the more likely they are to turn to snow. There is also likely to be hail and thunder - typical April showers.

Currently the models want to bring high pressure back to the north and east of us in the following week, which would turn the wind into the east. If this happens it will become drier and the temperature will depend on the source of the air - easterly winds at this time of year can be either warm or cold, so it is hard to say how this would pan out at this stage.

[Penellype]

As anticipated the high pressure is making its way north of us and the wind is swinging round to the east. At first the source of the air is the Mediterranean, and the weekend will therefore be warmer than it has been recently. Please do not be fooled into planting out non-hardy plants, as next week the wind swings further round, bringing the air in from the north east. While not a "beast from the east" scenario, this is a cold direction and more frosts and potentially snow are on the cards.

You have been warned!

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen