Penellype's Weather Channel

[Penellype]

*sobs disconsolately*

Snap. The 6am run is slightly better for next week, but nothing to write home about. Still cold nights over the next few days though, that's not going to change.

[Gillykat]

Oh FFFFFFFFFSSSSS

Wednesday was freezing torrential rain all day and I got thoroughly soaked and cold and I've just had enough now!!!!! I WANT WARMER WEATHER *stampsfootinhuff*

On a non-gardening note ~ there doesn't seem to be half as many swallows as normal in Alnwick yet and I wonder if this cold snap is keeping them down south or on the continent?

[Penellype]

Oh FFFFFFFFFSSSSS

Wednesday was freezing torrential rain all day and I got thoroughly soaked and cold and I've just had enough now!!!!! I WANT WARMER WEATHER *stampsfootinhuff*

On a non-gardening note ~ there doesn't seem to be half as many swallows as normal in Alnwick yet and I wonder if this cold snap is keeping them down south or on the continent?

Agreed, it "should" be spring by now! The local weather station had last night's recorded minimum at -2 - that's not funny in May.

I haven't seen a single swallow yet - they normally nest in the stables where I keep my horses. They have more sense at the moment! its equally colder than normal in Europe too.

Next week should see an improvement in daytime temperatures and it should be drier for a while, but nights could still be chilly. I don't like the look of where the long range models are going at the moment, so I'm hoping that they prove as unreliable as they were last year (when they forecast a cold and wet summer...).

[Gillykat]

I didn't realise Europe had been pretty chilly too - that'll be what's holding things back

My thermometer in the greenhouse had a minimum temperature of -2c from one of the nights in the past three days

[Penellype]

A drier and warmer week coming up, but don't expect a heatwave. Nights could still be chilly so keep an eye on forecast temperatures and be prepared to protect crops if frost is forecast.

By Friday the high pressure responsible for the improved weather is set to drift north and this gives forecasters all sorts of problems. Low pressure is likely to form south of the high, but whether this will be south of us over Spain and leave us dry, or whether it will be further north and give us a real soaking is open to question. This sort of weather pattern can be very wet indeed if it sets in, with the south wetter than the north. Persistent, heavy and thundery rain is possible, but equally only a few showers may be all that arrives, depending crucially on subtle differences in the position of the high.

The message is to make the most of the fine weather this week, if you can, as what happens next is very uncertain.

[1Bee]

*runs screaming into the room *

I just spotted a frost forecast for the end of the month.... *sob

[Penellype]

The end of the month is a long way off yet and is outside the "reliable" timeframe of the models, so don't panic yet.

The joker in the pack at the moment is high pressure over Greenland, which seems rather persistent and if it sets up with low pressure over Scandinavia the wind will turn into the north. If this aligns just right with a cold air mass, frost is possible even into June, but it becomes increasingly unlikely as the arctic warms up for the summer. The models are currently all over the place beyond the next few days (which will be unsettled with rain at times, and neither particularly warm nor cold), so all we can do is wait and see what develops.

[Nicos]

Well there better not be a frost for the next 10days cos with being away I couldn't ask anyone to water my seedlings.
We're already pushing the generosity of friends with looking after Hibou , the chooks and the bunny. ( including one 'sick' chook which actually at the moment is looking great!)

The air is really heavy here, if it were warmer I'd have said it was perfect blight weather.
Thanks for the updates Pen. My babies are well fleeced, so fingers crossed

[1Bee]

And there was no sign of my promised rain all day, either... *muttergrumble

[Penellype]

And there was no sign of my promised rain all day, either... *muttergrumble

Same here - the rain at the moment is showers, so not everyone will get one. They were lurking around York all day (no wind so very slow moving) but just where I live there was nothing.

Current thinking is more of the same for the next 3 days, less of a shower risk on Wednesday (ridge of higher pressure) then more general rain mainly in the south towards the end of the week, and probably wetter for everyone over the bank holiday.

[1Bee]

The weird thing is I've just realised part of the reason I'm so shattered is that I rely on the weather to pace me! Usually it's a reasonable mix of wet and dry (with emphasis on the wet up here!) and the wet forces me not to overdo the hard, physical labour! Luckily I'm working tomorrow on what is usually my non-working day, so that will help.

[Penellype]

I'm a bit the same with gardening vs housework/paperwork - I do the indoor jobs on wet days and garden when I can. Except there are no wet days...

My pile of paper to be dealt with is becoming quite frightening

[1Bee]

My house is a tip...!

[sandspider]

Is there any likelihood of rain, Pen?

All looking a bit dry down here in South Wales. Few drops today, but nothing like enough for my trees...

[Penellype]

Is there any likelihood of rain, Pen?

All looking a bit dry down here in South Wales. Few drops today, but nothing like enough for my trees...

Very dry here too, despite some rain yesterday and today. The next few days are likely to be showery, with the showers most likely in the afternoons, but as is always the case, not everywhere will get one. Some could be heavy with hail and thunder mixed in.

A more generally wet day is possible on Thursday as fronts associated with an area of low pressure move in. After this it is back to dry and increasingly warm weather on current model output, with temperatures reaching the mid 20s by the end of the weekend (subject to change at this range).

Something that you need to be aware of if you have tender plants outside is that there is the possibility of quite low temperatures on Thursday night. Currently the GFS is seeing lows of 1 to 4 quite widely from the midlands north - zeroes in parts of Scotland and slightly warmer to the south. The higher resolution Arpege model has it several degrees warmer though. Things can change at this range, but it is worth keeping an eye on forecasts.