Penellype's Weather Channel

[Penellype]

More yellow warnings of rain today for parts of Northern Ireland and some of the south of England. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2019-11-09.

Expect more of these as the unsettled weather pattern shows no sign of changing in the near future.

[chillithyme]

It is definitely raining down here, I had planned some work outdoors but I'm not in the mood to get muddy today, I'm out of clean clothes, it will have to be a laundry day instead.

Sad about the flooding of peoples homes in other areas this week

[Penellype]

More yellow warnings of rain for Thursday, with a risk of further flooding in areas already badly hit
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ce/uk-warnings

[Penellype]

Updates to warnings, moving the area somewhat to the south (but still covering the flooded areas). There is also a warning for tomorrow for parts of the south west as well as the ongoing warning today for the flooded midlands.

Expect more of this as nothing has happened to change the wet weather pattern.

[Gillykat]

Expect more of this as nothing has happened to change the wet weather pattern.

And to think I actually BELIEVED the forecasts a month or two ago when they said November would be a dry month......I'd planned to continue digging & tidying the allotment How could they lie to me like this? *sob*

[Penellype]

And to think I actually BELIEVED the forecasts a month or two ago when they said November would be a dry month......I'd planned to continue digging & tidying the allotment How could they lie to me like this? *sob*

What happened, as far as I remember, was that all the models were going for a build of high pressure over the UK which was expected to last well into November. Then when the high started to build a hurricane formed unusually far north and west in the Atlantic. This changed the overall pattern, as hurricanes sometimes do, so that we only got a few days of high pressure before the jet stream moved south of us, and there it has stayed. There is currently a very large loop in the jet stream, with high pressure to our east over central Europe (which is very warm and dry) forming a classic "omega block", and we are stuck with the cold and wet weather until something causes the high to shift. It is probably too late for another hurricane to do this for us, so we may be looking at a very wet winter...

Nothing is ever certain where the weather is concerned.

[Gillykat]

Yep, had a feeling it would end up being a wet 'un Never mind....I'll soon make up for lost time in March. I'm certainly not going to fret about not being able to get stuff done as nothing is spoiling

[Penellype]

Just checking the weather forecast update for this evening and came across this...



Might need the heating on!!!

[chillithyme]

brrrrr!
We haven't had any forecasts or temp reading 0 as far as I know, but we have had freezing puddles higher up? I'm confused, what temp does water freeze at P?Is it freezing because of cold wind?

[Penellype]

When the air is still the cold air sinks to the ground, meaning you can get ground frost - white on the grass and a small amount of ice on puddles even when the air above is not yet freezing. That's why your car may warn you of ice when it gets down to 4C, not 0C. That doesn't mean water freezes above 0C, just that the surface of the ground is colder than the air at say 1m above it. Plants that are very sensitive to frost will be killed by ground frost.

[Penellype]

Drier, but cold, for the next couple of days, which should at least allow some of the flood water to drain away. More rain likely by the weekend as low pressure returns. It should get a bit milder though, but how long for is very uncertain as there is a huge spread of temperatures in the forecasts by next week.

Weather apps will probably lead you to expect bright sunshine in the first half of this week. They may be right, but there is a distinct possibility that fog will form and could be slow to clear over the wet ground.

[Penellype]

Multiple yellow warnings of rain for the next few days as low pressure takes over again. Flooding is likely from persistent rain on already saturated ground.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ce/uk-warnings

The only good point is that it will be a bit milder than recently.

[Penellype]

Models are now firming up on a colder spell at the end of this week:



Temperatures take quite a dive and there will be overnight frost and possible freezing fog. As this is due to a ridge of high pressure building it will at least be drier, although probably not completely dry everywhere. What happens next is very uncertain - the green operational line shows a brief shot of very cold air around 9th December, but is a massive outlier so can (for now) be ignored, but the general up and down pattern of the individual lines and the return of the rainfall spikes imply that the high pressure will be giving way to low pressure again after a few days.

[Penellype]

Make the most of the dry weather, if you can, as things are slowly changing. Milder air is moving in around the top of the high pressure, reaching the north and west first. This will bring rain to Scotland and Ireland tomorrow, moving slowly south and reaching all areas by Friday. The weather is then forecast to become much more unsettled with bands of rain and stronger winds.

Next week the models are consistently seeing a return to colder weather, but this time it is unlikely to be dry. Wintery showers are possible as early as Monday and throughout the week the risk of snow is there, increasing the further north and higher up you are. This could change, as snow is extremely hard to forecast accurately, but this is worth keeping an eye on as it has been consistently forecast for several days.

[Penellype]

Some rather windy weather likely over the weekend. There is a yellow warning for Sunday into Monday for the south west and western Wales, and an orange warning for western Ireland with yellow for the rest of the Republic of Ireland, where MetEireann have named the storm Atiyah.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2019-12-08
https://www.met.ie/warnings