Penellype's Weather Channel

[Penellype]

The Met Office have released a RED warning for rain for parts of south Wales this morning:



The remainder of the UK is covered in yellow and amber warnings for wind and rain, with ice an added hazard in Scotland. Wind warnings continue into tomorrow for the north and north west. As storm Dennis moves away showers in the north and west may well turn to snow especially on higher ground where there could be blizzards in the strong winds.

In addition to this, all this rain is filling up the rivers fast, and this will have repercussions downstream into tomorrow. York is expecting its highest river levels since 2000 (possibly higher) tomorrow as water drains off the hills, and other places on low lying rivers will be similar. Keep an eye on flood warnings as the danger of flooding has not passed when it stops raining.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ce/uk-warnings

https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/

[Penellype]

Yet more yellow warnings of rain for some western areas today and tomorrow and for northern hills Friday and Saturday as more low pressure systems bring unwanted rain. More flooding is likely unfortunately.

[Nicos]

Thanks for the warning Pen.
I almost booked a BnB in an 'at risk' area

[Penellype]

More wind, rain and warnings incoming this weekend

Next week is showing the potential for some snow especially in the north and west. This is too far off for accurate forecasting (snow is particularly difficult and really you need it within the 48hr forecast to be confident) but it needs watching.

[.commander]

Nice wedge of snow today! Not gonna help the flooding nationally

[Penellype]

Yes, the jet stream is moving south allowing somewhat colder air to arrive. There is a risk of snow at times during this week, the locations depending on the exact track of low pressure systems. The snow risk is on the northern side of the lows.

No real sign of a change to drier weather from the shorter range models (upto a fortnight), although the longer range ones are insistent that March is going to be a high pressure month. We could certainly do with a persistent ridge of high pressure to dry things out, but I won't be holding my breath as the polar vortex, responsible for the strong jet stream, is still very much alive and kicking. The only good thing is that with the jet stream to the south it might just be slightly less windy after today.

[Penellype]

Yet another stormy weekend incoming with warnings for wind and rain just where we don't need it. This storm has been named Jorge by the Spanish met service (it would have been Ellen if we had named it) - not sure why Spain got there first as it is a long way north of them!

After a brief mild spell over the weekend as the warm sector of the low moves through it will become chilly again with the possibility of wintery showers and some hill snow next week - details impossible to pin down at this stage.

Keep an eye on the Met Office warnings page https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ce/uk-warnings and the flood warnings at https://flood-warning-information.se...ov.uk/warnings and remember that if you live near a large river, the water level can reach its peak a couple of days after the heavy rain.

[quanglewangle]

We had a sneaky F7 gallop through west Cornwall last night.

Blue 2 minute average, orange 20 second gust ("6 minute average" on graph refers to how often it's updated)

[1Bee]

Do you think we're through the winter storms, yet, Penellype? (I won't hold you to it. ��)

[Penellype]

Do you think we're through the winter storms, yet, Penellype? (I won't hold you to it. ��)

Not quite. March is a notoriously windy month as the temperature contrast between the warming south and the still very cold north increases. Although the flooding deluge has for the most part eased a bit, this week looks changeable and will be windy at times, and some of the model output (but not all) has been hinting at another possible storm around the weekend.

After the weekend we just possibly might see a build of high pressure which should both dry things out and calm things down. The position of the high (assuming it arrives) will be absolutely crucial to determine whether we see mild and spring-like weather, cloudy and damp, frost and fog or a cold snap. Too soon to tell at the moment.

[Penellype]

There are some warnings appearing for rain and wind this week, particularly an amber one for rain affecting parts of Wales tonight into tomorrow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2020-03-09

[1Bee]

Thanks Penellype. I have a blowaway to put up, but I'm trying to resist the temptation to tinker with it until the weather gets a bit more manageable. My gut reaction was that there would be a few more storms yet, so you're reassuring me I'm not being paranoid!

[Gillykat]

I'd wait until April before putting up that blowaway or it WILL do as it's name suggests I've got three in the shed (still in original boxes) that I picked up for quarter their original price in a sale at Argos in autumn 2018. Planning to get them up once the weather calms down and have various tomatoes, melons and cucumbers in them

[Penellype]

Most models are in agreement that it will be less windy after the weekend. Whether the windy weather will return later is quite another question.

[Gillykat]

It's certainly blowing a right hooley here in Alnwick today!