Penellype's Weather Channel

[Penellype]

Almost no rain at all here and windy too so everything continues to dry out.

[Containergardener]

Same here and field fires continuing

[1Bee]

Yup, I am officially watering now.

[Penellype]

The models keep pushing the rain back, so while it was expected at the weekend, we are now looking at Monday/Tuesday for possible rain.

On the plus side most of the colder runs have disappeared (for now) and the next few days look pleasantly warm with a gradual slide to nearer average temperatures over the weekend. This is linked to the change to more unsettled weather and therefore has to be regarded as similarly unreliable both from a timing perspective and whether it will happen at all.

[Penellype]

A change is now definitely on the way to wetter weather, via showers at first. There is considerable uncertainty about how long the more unsettled weather will last - it is perfectly possible that we have had "summer" now (as happened in 2007) but nothing is ever certain. The message is clear though - if you have jobs to do that need things to be dry, now is the time to get on with them!

[Chippy Minton]

it is perfectly possible that we have had "summer" now

Well you're full of the joys of spring!?!

Chap on the CountryFile weather forecast was predicting frost and even ... "wintry" showers for next weekend. The hokey kokey hardening off dance goes on for a while yet!

[Martin H]

The BBC is predicting a cold snap next weekend, but Metcheck is showing no sign of it. What do you think the chances are, Penellype?

[Containergardener]

Hahaha chippy "the hokey cokey"

Met office says 1 deg so that usually means less here , im expecting a frost.

[Penellype]

The BBC is predicting a cold snap next weekend, but Metcheck is showing no sign of it. What do you think the chances are, Penellype?

The models are in huge disagreement about a cold snap at the weekend. The ECMWF is very keen on bringing a very cold air mass down from the north which could indeed bring frost and wintry showers on higher ground.The GFS (which a lot of the apps use) was showing this on Saturday but not yesterday, and its back to cold again for the weekend today. Most of the models are tending towards the colder side.

Personally I think we will probably get frosts or very chilly nights for much of this week and into the weekend, starting tonight. This may not cover the whole country, so keep an eye on forecasts for where you are. The period between 10th and 15th May is often quite cold - it is known in old fashioned weather lore as the "ice maidens". While it is unusual to have frost here in May, I am always glad to see the back of this particular time from the gardening point of view, as frost now can kill the strawberry flowers among other things.

[Containergardener]

Thanks Pen. I've not heard if ice maidens tbh.

[Penellype]

Thanks Pen. I've not heard if ice maidens tbh.

There are several days or short periods in spring when cold weather appears to be more common than at other times. The most famous of these is 11th-14th April, which is known as the Blackthorn winter as it tends to coincide with the blackthorn flowering. I also find that around the 26th April there are often a couple of cold nights although this does not appear in general weather lore as a cold period. In May there are the ice maidens (various dates quoted depending on source, between 9th and 15th May) and there is "cold Sophie" on 19th May, although I have never noticed this as being particularly cold.

[Containergardener]

I shall watch for cold sophie then

[Martin H]

Thanks. I will abandon my plan to plant my outdoor tomatoes this week. They can harden off in their pots a while longer so that I can bring them in again if it gets too cold for them.

[Containergardener]

Got the frost last night.

[1Bee]

Of course I planted out my tomatoes into my blowaway a couple of days ago, didn't I? Doing the back and forth with terracotta pot and tealights at the moment...